Spatially explicit individual-based model reveals the mauve stinger jellyfish distribution in the Mediterranean Sea

The mauve stinger Pelagia noctiluca is a holoplanktonic oceanic jellyfish known for its painful sting and large outbreaks at irregular intervals. As jellyfish field observations are almost exclusively limited to coastal regions, there are many unknowns about the spatial and temporal dynamics of most species. We approach the problem using a spatially explicit individual-based model for the mauve stinger in the Mediterranean Sea. The newly developed module for the OpenDrift Lagrangian particle tracking tool includes diel vertical migrations, food-dependent growth modeled on Michaelis–Menten kinetics, and custom mortality related to shallow waters and stranding. In the first part of the study, we analyze the resulting parameter space searching for solutions that ensure a stable Pelagia noctilucapopulation in the western Mediterranean Sea. In the second part, we conducted several 21-year simulations. Despite its relative simplicity, the model reveals for the first time the dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Pelagia noctiluca. We demonstrate how spatially explicit individual-based model can be used to generate a realistic spatio-temporal distribution of marine zooplankton, even with a limited set of observations and loosely constrained parameters. The model code is easy to modify and freely available.