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Comparison of spring phenology simulation in central Asian grasslands

Author

Listed:
  • Dou, Xin
  • Wu, Lizhou
  • Zhao, Chengyi
  • Li, Juyan
  • Yan, Yingyu
  • Zhu, Jianting
  • Wang, Dandan

Abstract

Simulation of the spring phenology of grasslands is crucial for understanding how ecosystem respond to climate change and for precisely modeling the carbon, water, and energy balance in terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the performance of 15 phenology models was compared in terms of their ability to simulate the spring phenology of three grassland types in Central Asia from 2000 to 2019, using meteorological data and remote sensing inversion phenology data. The start of the grassland season (SOS) was simulated, and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were evaluated. The phenology models produced a median SOS RMSE of 6.7 ± 2.5 days. Among the 15 models, the Temperature-precipitation model (TP), Growing degree day model (GDD), and Temperature-precipitation sequential model (TPS) demonstrated superior performance for temperate grassland, desert grassland, and mountain meadow, respectively. Their respective median RMSEs were 4.20, 5.37, and 5.28 days. Furthermore, the study also projected the future grassland SOS from 2020 to 2100 under seven radiative forcing scenarios using these three models. The simulation results indicated that the SOS for all three grassland types would advance in the future, especially under higher radiative forcing scenarios. The study provides a scientific basis for the sustainable development of grassland ecosystems in Central Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Dou, Xin & Wu, Lizhou & Zhao, Chengyi & Li, Juyan & Yan, Yingyu & Zhu, Jianting & Wang, Dandan, 2025. "Comparison of spring phenology simulation in central Asian grasslands," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 501(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:501:y:2025:i:c:s0304380024003995
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.111011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Han, Qifei & Li, Chaofan & Zhao, Chengyi & Zhang, Yaoqi & Li, Shoubo, 2018. "Grazing decreased water use efficiency in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 388(C), pages 72-79.
    2. A. K. Ettinger & C. J. Chamberlain & I. Morales-Castilla & D. M. Buonaiuto & D. F. B. Flynn & T. Savas & J. A. Samaha & E. M. Wolkovich, 2020. "Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1137-1142, December.
    3. repec:plo:pone00:0033192 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
    5. Viswanathan, Michelle & Scheidegger, Andreas & Streck, Thilo & Gayler, Sebastian & Weber, Tobias K.D., 2022. "Bayesian multi-level calibration of a process-based maize phenology model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 474(C).
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