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Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming

Author

Listed:
  • A. K. Ettinger

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University)

  • C. J. Chamberlain

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University)

  • I. Morales-Castilla

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    University of Alcalá)

  • D. M. Buonaiuto

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University)

  • D. F. B. Flynn

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    US Department of Transport, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center)

  • T. Savas

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • J. A. Samaha

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    University of British Columbia)

  • E. M. Wolkovich

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    University of British Columbia)

Abstract

Research on woody plant species highlights three major cues that shape spring phenological events: chilling, forcing and photoperiod. Increasing research on the phenological impacts of climate change has led to debate over whether chilling and/or photoperiod cues have slowed phenological responses to warming in recent years. Here we use a global meta-analysis of all published experiments to test the relative effects of these cues. Almost all species show strong responses to all three cues, with chilling being the strongest and photoperiod the weakest. Forecasts from our findings for Central Europe suggest that spring phenology will continue to advance, as stalling effects of chilling generally appear above 4 °C warming in this region. Our results unify both sides of the debate over phenological cues: while all species may respond to all cues strongly in experimental conditions, in current environmental conditions the dominant signal of climate change is from increased forcing.

Suggested Citation

  • A. K. Ettinger & C. J. Chamberlain & I. Morales-Castilla & D. M. Buonaiuto & D. F. B. Flynn & T. Savas & J. A. Samaha & E. M. Wolkovich, 2020. "Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1137-1142, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00917-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00917-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiuping Yi & Ling Zou & Zigeng Niu & Daoyang Jiang & Qian Cao, 2022. "Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Winter Extreme Temperature Events on the Chinese Mainland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Benjamin R. Lee & Tara K. Miller & Christoph Rosche & Yong Yang & J. Mason Heberling & Sara E. Kuebbing & Richard B. Primack, 2022. "Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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