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Constraining the organic matter decay parameters in the CBM-CFS3 using Canadian National Forest Inventory data and a Bayesian inversion technique

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  • Hararuk, Oleksandra
  • Shaw, Cindy
  • Kurz, Werner A.

Abstract

Forests are an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle: they can capture and retain large amounts of C annually, depending on stand characteristics, climate, and disturbance regimes. With climate and disturbance regimes shifting, it is important to be able to accurately represent the corresponding changes in forest C dynamics with well-calibrated models. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is a widely used model for simulating C dynamics in managed forests at stand, regional, and national levels. Here, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to calibrate the parameters in the CBM-CFS3 by assimilating C stocks of six deadwood and soil pools estimated from data collected from 635 plots within the Canadian National Forest Inventory. Calibration led to most improvement in the simulation of C stocks in small and fine woody debris, reducing RMSE by 54.3%, followed by the snag stems (RMSE reduced by 23.2%), and coarse woody debris (13%). The calibrated parameters resulted in increased rates of C cycling in fine and coarse woody debris and the soil organic layer, distinct C dynamics in hardwood and softwood dominated stands, and increased temperature sensitivity of the C contained in the mineral soil. While parameter calibration considerably improved the simulation of the small and fine woody debris and snags stem pools, model representation of the branch snag, coarse woody debris, soil organic layer, and mineral soil pools were not substantially improved. Lack of substantial improvements in the calibrated model performance indicated the need for including additional processes in C dynamics simulation or a change in the modelling paradigm. We illustrate the potential need to include a lignin effect on deadwood decay and suggest further exploration of the effects of tree species, soil types, and mosses on performance of the CBM-CFS3.

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  • Hararuk, Oleksandra & Shaw, Cindy & Kurz, Werner A., 2017. "Constraining the organic matter decay parameters in the CBM-CFS3 using Canadian National Forest Inventory data and a Bayesian inversion technique," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:364:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.09.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. A. Kurz & C. C. Dymond & G. Stinson & G. J. Rampley & E. T. Neilson & A. L. Carroll & T. Ebata & L. Safranyik, 2008. "Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 452(7190), pages 987-990, April.
    2. Metsaranta, J.M. & Kurz, W.A., 2012. "Inter-annual variability of ecosystem production in boreal jack pine forests (1975–2004) estimated from tree-ring data using CBM-CFS3," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 111-123.
    3. Kurz, W.A. & Dymond, C.C. & White, T.M. & Stinson, G. & Shaw, C.H. & Rampley, G.J. & Smyth, C. & Simpson, B.N. & Neilson, E.T. & Trofymow, J.A. & Metsaranta, J. & Apps, M.J., 2009. "CBM-CFS3: A model of carbon-dynamics in forestry and land-use change implementing IPCC standards," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(4), pages 480-504.
    4. Amichev, Beyhan Y. & Bentham, Murray J. & Kurz, Werner A. & Laroque, Colin P. & Kulshreshtha, Suren & Piwowar, Joseph M. & Van Rees, Ken C.J., 2016. "Carbon sequestration by white spruce shelterbelts in Saskatchewan, Canada: 3PG and CBM-CFS3 model simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 325(C), pages 35-46.
    5. W. Kurz & M. Apps, 2006. "Developing Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System to Meet the Reporting Requirements of the Kyoto Protocol," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 33-43, January.
    6. Hagemann, Ulrike & Moroni, Martin T. & Shaw, Cindy H. & Kurz, Werner A. & Makeschin, Franz, 2010. "Comparing measured and modelled forest carbon stocks in high-boreal forests of harvest and natural-disturbance origin in Labrador, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(5), pages 825-839.
    7. Shaw, C.H. & Hilger, A.B. & Metsaranta, J. & Kurz, W.A. & Russo, G. & Eichel, F. & Stinson, G. & Smyth, C. & Filiatrault, M., 2014. "Evaluation of simulated estimates of forest ecosystem carbon stocks using ground plot data from Canada's National Forest Inventory," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 323-347.
    8. Smyth, C.E. & Kurz, W.A. & Trofymow, J.A., 2011. "Including the effects of water stress on decomposition in the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector CBM-CFS3," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(5), pages 1080-1091.
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    1. Bona, Kelly Ann & Shaw, Cindy & Thompson, Dan K. & Hararuk, Oleksandra & Webster, Kara & Zhang, Gary & Voicu, Mihai & Kurz, Werner A., 2020. "The Canadian model for peatlands (CaMP): A peatland carbon model for national greenhouse gas reporting," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).

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