IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v220y2009i17p1968-1983.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models

Author

Listed:
  • Turley, Marianne C.
  • Ford, E. David

Abstract

We present a method of multi-criteria assessment for the analysis of process model uncertainty that combines analysis of model structure, parameters and data requirements. There are three components in calculation and definition of uncertainty.(1)Assessment criteria: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the model can simultaneously simulate an increased number of assessment criteria selected to test specific aspects of the theory being investigated, and within acceptable limits set for those criteria. This reduces incomplete specification of the model—the characteristic that a model may explain some, but not all, of the observed features of a phenomenon. The calculation required is computation of the Pareto set which provides the list of simultaneously achieved criteria within specified ranges.(2)Parameter values: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the distribution of values for parameters simulating multiple assessment criteria within their acceptable limits becomes unimodal and with reduced range. This reduces non-uniqueness in the model—the characteristic that there may be alternative representations and no a priori way of deciding between them. The calculation required is analysis of parameter values within each group of the Pareto set, for their distributions and possible correlations which contributes to a definition of non-uniqueness in terms of whether multiple modes in parameter values are equally plausible.(3)Data and information: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the acceptable limits for assessment criteria are defined with increasing precision. The calculations required are to define acceptability ranges for the assessment criteria either through empirical investigations or through inference from related theories. This provides a definition of the relationship of the model to empirical and theoretical construction thought to be important.

Suggested Citation

  • Turley, Marianne C. & Ford, E. David, 2009. "Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(17), pages 1968-1983.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:17:p:1968-1983
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009003159
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.046?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xenakis, Georgios & Ray, Duncan & Mencuccini, Maurizio, 2008. "Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis from a coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter decomposition model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 1-16.
    2. Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie & Revilla, Eloy & Wiegand, Thorsten & Grimm, Volker, 2007. "Patterns for parameters in simulation models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 553-556.
    3. Piñol, Josep & Castellnou, Marc & Beven, Keith J., 2007. "Conditioning uncertainty in ecological models: Assessing the impact of fire management strategies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 34-44.
    4. Swanack, Todd M. & Grant, William E. & Forstner, Michael R.J., 2009. "Projecting population trends of endangered amphibian species in the face of uncertainty: A pattern-oriented approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 148-159.
    5. Zou, Rui & Lung, Wu-Seng & Wu, Jing, 2009. "Multiple-pattern parameter identification and uncertainty analysis approach for water quality modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(5), pages 621-629.
    6. Callies, U. & Scharfe, M. & Ratto, M., 2008. "Calibration and uncertainty analysis of a simple model of silica-limited diatom growth in the Elbe River," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 229-244.
    7. Larocque, Guy R. & Bhatti, Jagtar S. & Boutin, Robert & Chertov, Oleg, 2008. "Uncertainty analysis in carbon cycle models of forest ecosystems: Research needs and development of a theoretical framework to estimate error propagation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 400-412.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Perz, Stephen G. & Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael & Kiker, Gregory & Holt, Robert D., 2013. "Evaluating ecological resilience with global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 263(C), pages 174-186.
    2. Huang, Jiacong & Gao, Junfeng & Liu, Jutao & Zhang, Yinjun, 2013. "State and parameter update of a hydrodynamic-phytoplankton model using ensemble Kalman filter," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 263(C), pages 81-91.
    3. Ma, Shaoxiu & Churkina, Galina & Wieland, Ralf & Gessler, Arthur, 2011. "Optimization and evaluation of the ANTHRO-BGC model for winter crops in Europe," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3662-3679.
    4. Marzloff, Martin P. & Johnson, Craig R. & Little, L. Rich & Soulié, Jean-Christophe & Ling, Scott D. & Frusher, Stewart D., 2013. "Sensitivity analysis and pattern-oriented validation of TRITON, a model with alternative community states: Insights on temperate rocky reefs dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 258(C), pages 16-32.
    5. Li, Linjun & Lu, Hongfang & Campbell, Daniel E. & Ren, Hai, 2011. "Methods for estimating the uncertainty in emergy table-form models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(15), pages 2615-2622.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Varela, Elsa & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Soliño, Mario, 2014. "Understanding the heterogeneity of social preferences for fire prevention management," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 91-104.
    2. Mitchell, Stephen & Beven, Keith & Freer, Jim, 2009. "Multiple sources of predictive uncertainty in modeled estimates of net ecosystem CO2 exchange," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3259-3270.
    3. Perryman, Holly A. & Kaplan, Isaac C. & Blanchard, Julia L. & Fay, Gavin & Gaichas, Sarah K. & McGregor, Vidette L. & Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini & Porobic, Javier & Townsend, Howard & Fulton, Elizabeth, 2023. "Atlantis Ecosystem Model Summit 2022: Report from a workshop," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    4. Piñol, Josep & Espadaler, Xavier & Pérez, Nicolás & Beven, Keith, 2009. "Testing a new model of aphid abundance with sedentary and non-sedentary predators," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(19), pages 2469-2480.
    5. Pretzsch, Hans & Forrester, David I. & Rötzer, Thomas, 2015. "Representation of species mixing in forest growth models. A review and perspective," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 276-292.
    6. Bagnara, Maurizio & Van Oijen, Marcel & Cameron, David & Gianelle, Damiano & Magnani, Federico & Sottocornola, Matteo, 2018. "Bayesian calibration of simple forest models with multiplicative mathematical structure: A case study with two Light Use Efficiency models in an alpine forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 90-100.
    7. Nölte, Anja & Yousefpour, Rasoul & Hanewinkel, Marc, 2020. "Changes in sessile oak (Quercus petraea) productivity under climate change by improved leaf phenology in the 3-PG model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 438(C).
    8. Nicholas R. Magliocca, 2015. "Model-Based Synthesis of Locally Contingent Responses to Global Market Signals," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-35, September.
    9. Heymans, Johanna Jacomina & Coll, Marta & Link, Jason S. & Mackinson, Steven & Steenbeek, Jeroen & Walters, Carl & Christensen, Villy, 2016. "Best practice in Ecopath with Ecosim food-web models for ecosystem-based management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 331(C), pages 173-184.
    10. Collalti, Alessio & Perugini, Lucia & Santini, Monia & Chiti, Tommaso & Nolè, Angelo & Matteucci, Giorgio & Valentini, Riccardo, 2014. "A process-based model to simulate growth in forests with complex structure: Evaluation and use of 3D-CMCC Forest Ecosystem Model in a deciduous forest in Central Italy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 362-378.
    11. Larocque, Guy R. & Bhatti, Jagtar & Arsenault, André, 2014. "Integrated modelling software platform development for effective use of ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 195-202.
    12. Majid Mirzaei & Yuk Huang & Ahmed El-Shafie & Tayebeh Chimeh & Juneseok Lee & Nariman Vaizadeh & Jan Adamowski, 2015. "Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1947-1960, September.
    13. Shanin, Vladimir N. & Komarov, Alexander S. & Mikhailov, Alexey V. & Bykhovets, Sergei S., 2011. "Modelling carbon and nitrogen dynamics in forest ecosystems of Central Russia under different climate change scenarios and forest management regimes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(14), pages 2262-2275.
    14. Radchuk, Viktoriia & Johst, Karin & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Grimm, Volker & Schtickzelle, Nicolas, 2013. "Behind the scenes of population viability modeling: Predicting butterfly metapopulation dynamics under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 259(C), pages 62-73.
    15. Yi, Xuan & Zou, Rui & Guo, Huaicheng, 2016. "Global sensitivity analysis of a three-dimensional nutrients-algae dynamic model for a large shallow lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 327(C), pages 74-84.
    16. Bagnara, Maurizio & Sottocornola, Matteo & Cescatti, Alessandro & Minerbi, Stefano & Montagnani, Leonardo & Gianelle, Damiano & Magnani, Federico, 2015. "Bayesian optimization of a light use efficiency model for the estimation of daily gross primary productivity in a range of Italian forest ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 306(C), pages 57-66.
    17. Zhao, Xiaodong & Zhang, Hongjian & Tao, Xiaolei, 2013. "Predicting the short-time-scale variability of chlorophyll a in the Elbe River using a Lagrangian-based multi-criterion analog model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 279-286.
    18. Chudzinska, Magda & Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob & Smout, Sophie & Aarts, Geert & Brasseur, Sophie & Graham, Isla & Thompson, Paul & McConnell, Bernie, 2021. "AgentSeal: Agent-based model describing movement of marine central-place foragers," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    19. Zhou, Decheng & Zhao, Shuqing & Liu, Shuguang & Zhang, Liangxia, 2014. "Modeling the effects of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Loess Plateau: A case study with Ansai County, Shaanxi province, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 288(C), pages 47-54.
    20. Vincenot, Christian Ernest & Giannino, Francesco & Rietkerk, Max & Moriya, Kazuyuki & Mazzoleni, Stefano, 2011. "Theoretical considerations on the combined use of System Dynamics and individual-based modeling in ecology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 210-218.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:17:p:1968-1983. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.