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Will the new technologies turn the page on U.S. productivity growth?

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  • Alexopoulos, Michelle
  • Cohen, Jon

Abstract

Is the recent slowdown in productivity likely to persist into the foreseeable future? Amazon.com data are used to create updated indicators of technical change and to establish the relationship between them and productivity growth. They reveal a slowdown in innovative activity in the early 2000s but register a recent uptick linked to innovations in robotics, AI, and cloud-computing. Estimates suggest that if these trends were to continue, large productivity gains are likely to be achieved in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexopoulos, Michelle & Cohen, Jon, 2019. "Will the new technologies turn the page on U.S. productivity growth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 19-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:19-23
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.11.027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
    2. Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2011. "Volumes of evidence: examining technical change in the last century through a new lens," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(2), pages 413-450, May.
    3. Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John D., 2018. "Sectoral TFP news shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 31-36.
    4. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2017. "News and Financial Intermediation in Aggregate Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 514-530, July.
    5. John G. Fernald, 2016. "Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?," Working Paper Series 2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. John Shea, 1999. "What Do Technology Shocks Do?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 275-322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2011. "Read All about It!! What Happens Following a Technology Shock?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1144-1179, June.
    8. Alexopoulos, Michelle, 2008. "Extra! Extra! Some positive technology shocks are expansionary!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 153-156, December.
    9. Lone Engbo Christiansen, 2008. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to Productivity Slowdowns? Evidence from Patent Data," IMF Working Papers 2008/024, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Technical change; News shocks; Data mining;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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