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Concept guided risk assessment: Promoting prediction and understanding

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  • Baumann, Donald J.
  • Grigsby, Charles
  • Sheets, Janess
  • Reid, Grant
  • Graham, J. Christopher
  • Robinson, David
  • Holoubek, Jason
  • Farris, James
  • Jeffries, Victoria
  • Wang, Eugene

Abstract

This article presents a concept-guided approach to the assessment of risk in the life situations of children alleged to be maltreatment victims. This concept-guided risk assessment is theoretically based and is the first to use a nomological hierarchy which can yield itself to systematic testing for construct validity. Data were collected on 1199 cases referred for investigations of child maltreatment. Reliability was examined by applying Cronbach's alpha coefficient to the 25 risk features and the 18 risk category constructs within the seven risk areas. Convergent validity coefficients for seven risk area constructs and eighteen risk category constructs were computed and structural validity was examined using an analysis technique adapted from the multitrait-multimethod technique of Campbell and Fiske (1959). Predictive validity was assessed using a multivariate measure assessing rated risk, seriousness, and concern. In general, the results support construct validity. Improvements are needed in assessments of child vulnerability and caregiver stress. The overall psychometric evidence, combined with the model's hierarchical and theoretical nature, suggests a promising direction for future research on understanding and preventing child maltreatment.

Suggested Citation

  • Baumann, Donald J. & Grigsby, Charles & Sheets, Janess & Reid, Grant & Graham, J. Christopher & Robinson, David & Holoubek, Jason & Farris, James & Jeffries, Victoria & Wang, Eugene, 2011. "Concept guided risk assessment: Promoting prediction and understanding," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1648-1657, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:cysrev:v:33:y:2011:i:9:p:1648-1657
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. English, Diana J. & Graham, J. Christopher, 2000. "An examination of relationships between children's protective services social worker assessment of risk and independent LONGSCAN measures of risk constructs," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(11-12), pages 897-933.
    2. Graham, J. Christopher & Stepura, Kelly & Baumann, Donald J. & Kern, Homer, 2010. "Predicting child fatalities among less-severe CPS investigations," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 274-280, February.
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    4. Dawes, Robyn M., 1999. "A message from psychologists to economists: mere predictability doesn't matter like it should (without a good story appended to it)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 29-40, May.
    5. Schwalbe, Craig, 2004. "Re-visioning risk assessment for human service decision making," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 561-576, June.
    6. Baumann, Donald J. & Law, J. Randolph & Sheets, Janess & Reid, Grant & Graham, J. Christopher, 2005. "Evaluating the effectiveness of actuarial risk assessment models," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 465-490, May.
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    1. Schwartz, Ira M. & York, Peter & Nowakowski-Sims, Eva & Ramos-Hernandez, Ana, 2017. "Predictive and prescriptive analytics, machine learning and child welfare risk assessment: The Broward County experience," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 309-320.
    2. Lambert, Matthew C. & Johnson, Leah E. & Wang, Eugene W., 2017. "The impact of family group decision-making on preventing removals," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 89-92.
    3. Camasso, Michael J. & Jagannathan, Radha, 2019. "Conceptualizing and testing the vicious cycle in child protective services: The critical role played by child maltreatment fatalities," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 178-189.
    4. Jagannathan, Radha & Camasso, Michael J., 2017. "Social outrage and organizational behavior: A national study of child protective service decisions," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 153-163.
    5. Victor Grimaldi & Javier Pérez-Padilla & Miguel Ángel Garrido & Bárbara Lorence, 2019. "Assessment and Decision-Making in Child Protective Services: Risk Situations Kept-at-Home Versus Out-of-Home Care," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 12(5), pages 1611-1628, October.
    6. Wang, Eugene W. & Lambert, Matthew C. & Johnson, Leah E. & Boudreau, Brock & Breidenbach, Rebecca & Baumann, Donald, 2012. "Expediting permanent placement from foster care systems: The role of family group decision-making," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 845-850.
    7. Platt, Dendy & Riches, Katie, 2016. "Assessing parental capacity to change: The missing jigsaw piece in the assessment of a child's welfare?," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 141-148.

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