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Dynamic Bayesian beta models

Author

Listed:
  • da-Silva, C.Q.
  • Migon, H.S.
  • Correia, L.T.

Abstract

We develop a dynamic Bayesian beta model for modeling and forecasting single time series of rates or proportions. This work is related to a class of dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs), although, for convenience, we use non-conjugate priors. The proposed methodology is based on approximate analysis relying on Bayesian linear estimation, nonlinear system of equations solution and Gaussian quadrature. Intentionally we avoid MCMC strategy, keeping the desired sequential nature of the Bayesian analysis. Applications to both real and simulated data are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • da-Silva, C.Q. & Migon, H.S. & Correia, L.T., 2011. "Dynamic Bayesian beta models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 2074-2089, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:55:y:2011:i:6:p:2074-2089
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Scher, Vinícius T. & Bayer, Fábio M., 2023. "Beta autoregressive moving average model selection with application to modeling and forecasting stored hydroelectric energy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 98-109.
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    6. Wagner Hugo Bonat & Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro & Walmes Marques Zeviani, 2015. "Likelihood analysis for a class of beta mixed models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 252-266, February.
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    8. Souza, M.A.O. & Migon, H.S. & Pereira, J.B.M., 2018. "Extended dynamic generalized linear models: The two-parameter exponential family," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 164-179.
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    10. Katz, Harrison & Brusch, Kai Thomas & Weiss, Robert E., 2024. "A Bayesian Dirichlet auto-regressive moving average model for forecasting lead times," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1556-1567.
    11. Ceren Eda Can & Gul Ergun & Refik Soyer, 2022. "Bayesian Analysis of Proportions via a Hidden Markov Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 3121-3139, December.
    12. Cheng, Ching-Wei & Hung, Ying-Chao & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy, 2014. "Generating beta random numbers and Dirichlet random vectors in R: The package rBeta2009," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1011-1020.
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    14. James D. Santos & José M. J. Costa, 2019. "An Algorithm for Prior Elicitation in Dynamic Bayesian Models for Proportions with the Logit Link Function," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 169-183, March.

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