IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Bayesian beta models


  • da-Silva, C.Q.
  • Migon, H.S.
  • Correia, L.T.


We develop a dynamic Bayesian beta model for modeling and forecasting single time series of rates or proportions. This work is related to a class of dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs), although, for convenience, we use non-conjugate priors. The proposed methodology is based on approximate analysis relying on Bayesian linear estimation, nonlinear system of equations solution and Gaussian quadrature. Intentionally we avoid MCMC strategy, keeping the desired sequential nature of the Bayesian analysis. Applications to both real and simulated data are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • da-Silva, C.Q. & Migon, H.S. & Correia, L.T., 2011. "Dynamic Bayesian beta models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 2074-2089, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:55:y:2011:i:6:p:2074-2089

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Godolphin, E.J. & Triantafyllopoulos, Kostas, 2006. "Decomposition of time series models in state-space form," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2232-2246, May.
    2. Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392.
    3. Ed McKenzie, 1985. "An Autoregressive Process for Beta Random Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(8), pages 988-997, August.
    4. Bruche, Max & González-Aguado, Carlos, 2010. "Recovery rates, default probabilities, and the credit cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 754-764, April.
    5. Paolino, Philip, 2001. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Models with Beta-Distributed Dependent Variables," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 325-346, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Ching-Wei & Hung, Ying-Chao & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy, 2014. "Generating beta random numbers and Dirichlet random vectors in R: The package rBeta2009," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1011-1020.
    2. repec:eee:csdana:v:114:y:2017:i:c:p:38-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Guillermo Ferreira & Jorge Figueroa-Zúñiga & Mário Castro, 2015. "Partially linear beta regression model with autoregressive errors," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(4), pages 752-775, December.
    4. repec:spr:compst:v:33:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s00180-017-0747-x is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Fabrizi, Enrico & Trivisano, Carlo, 2016. "Small area estimation of the Gini concentration coefficient," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 223-234.
    6. repec:eee:csdana:v:121:y:2018:i:c:p:164-179 is not listed on IDEAS


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:55:y:2011:i:6:p:2074-2089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.