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Nonlinear dynamics in real economy and financial markets: The role of dividend policies in fluctuations

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  • Grassetti, Francesca
  • Mammana, Cristiana
  • Michetti, Elisabetta

Abstract

This paper investigates how dividend policies may influence the creation and propagation of cycles between real economy and financial markets. We focus on the effect of a constant dividend policy on the stability of the aggregate economy, by means of a discrete dynamical framework in which managers, individuals and financial mediators coexist. We show the counter-intuitive effect of the dividend payout ratio: in a developed economy, an increase in dividends leads to a lower stock price level due to the cross-feedback effect between markets. Moreover, in non-developed economies the choice of managers and individuals may not influence the propagation of fluctuations, while in developed economies, high payout ratios and high sensitivity to market trends trigger a cross-feedback effect between the two markets that amplifies their volatility and drags the whole economy into fluctuations and cycles.

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  • Grassetti, Francesca & Mammana, Cristiana & Michetti, Elisabetta, 2022. "Nonlinear dynamics in real economy and financial markets: The role of dividend policies in fluctuations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:160:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922004015
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112191
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