The liquidity trap: Japan, 1996-2001 versus the United States, 1933-1940
Keynes' "liquidity trap" rarely occurs. But when it does, it has a tremendously adverse effect on the economy concerned. Such was the case of the United States in the 1930s and now that of contemporary Japan. In a liquidity trap, monetary policy pushes the money interest rate to the zero level while expanding the money supply (M1) at a faster rate than nominal GDP. Conventional theory explains this phenomenon as the result of money demand that becomes infinitely interest-elastic at the zero rate, rendering ineffective the rapidly expanding money supply established by the monetary authorities. In this paper, we show that the liquidity trap is a multifaceted phenomenon not limited to the money market. It involves the bank loan market, the bank deposit market, and the bond market interacting together. Of these, the most important is the bank loan market and the least important is the bank deposit market, whose deposit supply becomes horizontal at the zero rate. They are met by relatively interest-inelastic bank loan demand and bank deposit demand. Hence, the causality is completely reversed from the conventional understanding. We give empirical evidence in support of our theory based on data from the United States, 1933-1940 and Japan, 1996-2001. Far apart in time and space, the two cases are remarkably alike and, hence, provide strong supporting evidence.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
- J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
- Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Restoring Japan's Economic Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 35, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:155-169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.