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A stochastic simulation model for reliable PV system sizing providing for solar radiation fluctuations

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  • Kaplani, E.
  • Kaplanis, S.

Abstract

The large fluctuations observed in the daily solar radiation profiles affect highly the reliability of the PV system sizing. Increasing the reliability of the PV system requires higher installed peak power (Pm) and larger battery storage capacity (CL). This leads to increased costs, and makes PV technology less competitive. This research paper presents a new stochastic simulation model for stand-alone PV systems, developed to determine the minimum installed Pm and CL for the PV system to be energy independent. The stochastic simulation model developed, makes use of knowledge acquired from an in-depth statistical analysis of the solar radiation data for the site, and simulates the energy delivered, the excess energy burnt, the load profiles and the state of charge of the battery system for the month the sizing is applied, and the PV system performance for the entire year. The simulation model provides the user with values for the autonomy factor d, simulating PV performance in order to determine the minimum Pm and CL depending on the requirements of the application, i.e. operation with critical or non-critical loads. The model makes use of NASA’s Surface meteorology and Solar Energy database for the years 1990–2004 for various cities in Europe with a different climate. The results obtained with this new methodology indicate a substantial reduction in installed peak power and battery capacity, both for critical and non-critical operation, when compared to conventional approaches applied in PV sizing.

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  • Kaplani, E. & Kaplanis, S., 2012. "A stochastic simulation model for reliable PV system sizing providing for solar radiation fluctuations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 970-981.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:97:y:2012:i:c:p:970-981
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.12.016
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    12. Kaplani, E. & Kaplanis, S. & Mondal, S., 2018. "A spatiotemporal universal model for the prediction of the global solar radiation based on Fourier series and the site altitude," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 933-942.
    13. Zhuoyuan Lyu & Ying Shen & Yu Zhao & Tao Hu, 2023. "Solar Radiation Prediction Based on Conformer-GLaplace-SDAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-18, October.
    14. Muhsen, Dhiaa Halboot & Khatib, Tamer & Nagi, Farrukh, 2017. "A review of photovoltaic water pumping system designing methods, control strategies and field performance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 70-86.
    15. Lujano-Rojas, Juan M. & Dufo-López, Rodolfo & Bernal-Agustín, José L., 2013. "Probabilistic modelling and analysis of stand-alone hybrid power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 19-27.
    16. Khalilpour, Rajab & Vassallo, Anthony, 2016. "Planning and operation scheduling of PV-battery systems: A novel methodology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 194-208.
    17. Deng, Qianli & Jiang, Xianglin & Cui, Qingbin & Zhang, Limao, 2015. "Strategic design of cost savings guarantee in energy performance contracting under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 68-80.
    18. Haobo Shi & Yanping Xu & Baodi Ding & Jinsong Zhou & Pei Zhang, 2023. "Long-Term Solar Power Time-Series Data Generation Method Based on Generative Adversarial Networks and Sunrise–Sunset Time Correction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-19, October.
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    20. Haytham El-houari & Amine Allouhi & Shafiqur Rehman & Mahmut Sami Buker & Tarik Kousksou & Abdelmajid Jamil & Bouchta El Amrani, 2019. "Design, Simulation, and Economic Optimization of an Off-Grid Photovoltaic System for Rural Electrification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    21. Raza, Syed Shabbar & Janajreh, Isam & Ghenai, Chaouki, 2014. "Sustainability index approach as a selection criteria for energy storage system of an intermittent renewable energy source," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 909-920.
    22. Eduardo Quiles & Carlos Roldán-Blay & Guillermo Escrivá-Escrivá & Carlos Roldán-Porta, 2020. "Accurate Sizing of Residential Stand-Alone Photovoltaic Systems Considering System Reliability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, February.
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