A novel multi-objective decision-making model to determine optimum resource and capacity configuration for hybrid electricity generation systems: A comparative case study in Türkiye

The rapid depletion of fossil fuels, their negative environmental impacts due to harmful carbon emissions, and the drawbacks of the sole use of intermittent renewable energy resources on system reliability necessitate the use of more advanced energy system technologies. As a result, hybrid electricity generation systems offer an innovative alternative to conventional energy systems. However, the technical complexity and variability of these systems require the application of multi-objective optimization techniques to determine the optimal sizing and system design. Therefore, in this study, we suggest a multi-objective decision-making (MODM) model that involves five conflicting objectives to find the optimal resource configuration and auxiliary source capacity allocation within the framework of the multi-source electricity production method in Türkiye. The MODM model aims to maximize the utilization of resource potentials and the jobs created, while simultaneously minimizing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), construction duration, and carbon emissions. The MODM model was solved using fmincon and fgoalattain multi-objective optimization algorithms using the Goal Attainment Method in MATLAB and the model results were subsequently compared to the real-world data. According to the model results, the optimal capacity to be allocated for the auxiliary source units is 13,749.58 MWm, while the capacity allocated according to the real-world data as of March 2024 is 2495.49 MWm. In contrast to the model's prediction of 90.8 % solar-based auxiliary unit installations, 99.8 % of auxiliary units are based on solar PV in the actual case. Furthermore, hydro or geothermal-based auxiliary sources are not allocated any capacity, which is consistent with the actual situation. The capacity allocated for the wind (primary source) + solar (auxiliary source) configuration is 76.2 %, whereas in reality, it accounts for 65.6 % of the total installations. Consequently, the model findings suggest that the maximum capacity allocation is for the wind (primary source) + solar (auxiliary source) type hybrid electricity generation system.