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Long short term memory–convolutional neural network based deep hybrid approach for solar irradiance forecasting

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  • Kumari, Pratima
  • Toshniwal, Durga

Abstract

The volatile behavior of solar energy is the biggest challenge in its successful integration with existing grid systems. Accurate global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting can resolve this issue and lead to early and effective participation in the energy market. This study proposes a new hybrid deep learning model, namely long short term memory–convolutional neural network (LSTM–CNN), for hourly GHI forecasting, which models the spatio-temporal features by integrating the long short term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural network (CNN) model. The proposed model is trained with the meteorological data of 23 locations of California State, USA, which includes temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, etc., as input parameters. The proposed hybrid LSTM–CNN model firstly uses LSTM to extract the temporal features from time-series solar irradiance data, followed by CNN, which extracts the spatial features from the correlation matrix of several meteorological variables of target and its neighbor location. The prediction accuracy of the developed model is analyzed rigorously by examining the performance for a year, for four seasons and under three sky conditions. Besides, the proposed LSTM–CNN model shows a forecast skill score in a range of about 37%–45% over few standalone models, including smart persistence, support vector machine, artificial neural network, LSTM, CNN and other hybrid models. The findings of the present work suggest that the proposed hybrid LSTM–CNN model is a reliable alternative for short-term GHI prediction due to its high predictive accuracy under diverse climatic, seasonal and sky conditions.

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  • Kumari, Pratima & Toshniwal, Durga, 2021. "Long short term memory–convolutional neural network based deep hybrid approach for solar irradiance forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:295:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921005158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117061
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    7. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining a deep learning model with multivariate empirical mode decomposition for hourly global horizontal irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 908-927.
    8. Jiang, Chengcheng & Zhu, Qunzhi, 2023. "Evaluating the most significant input parameters for forecasting global solar radiation of different sequences based on Informer," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
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    15. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining simple and less time complex ML models with multivariate empirical mode decomposition to obtain accurate GHI forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    16. Eşlik, Ardan Hüseyin & Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoğlu, Fatih Onur, 2022. "Short-term solar radiation forecasting with a novel image processing-based deep learning approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1490-1505.
    17. Bisoi, Ranjeeta & Dash, Deepak Ranjan & Dash, P.K. & Tripathy, Lokanath, 2022. "An efficient robust optimized functional link broad learning system for solar irradiance prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    18. Yin, Linfei & Cao, Xinghui & Liu, Dongduan, 2023. "Weighted fully-connected regression networks for one-day-ahead hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    19. Isaac Gallardo & Daniel Amor & Álvaro Gutiérrez, 2023. "Recent Trends in Real-Time Photovoltaic Prediction Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-17, July.
    20. Bo Wang & Tiancheng Wang & Mao Yang & Chao Han & Dawei Huang & Dake Gu, 2023. "Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Method of Wind Power for Massive Wind Power Clusters Based on Feature Mining of Spatiotemporal Correlation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, March.
    21. Paletta, Quentin & Hu, Anthony & Arbod, Guillaume & Lasenby, Joan, 2022. "ECLIPSE: Envisioning CLoud Induced Perturbations in Solar Energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
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