Predicting the effect of weir management on the discharge of a controlled drainage system in a changing climate

Subsurface drainage in humid areas prevents field waterlogging but also transports nutrients to freshwater systems. Controlled drainage (CD) reduces drainage discharge and nutrient transport from fields. Some regions are expected to experience increased precipitation in the future, requiring CD to be evaluated under a changing climate. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of CD under two weir managements for a future period (2030–2059) and historical period (1992-2021) in southeast Michigan, USA. Climate projections were obtained for the shared socioeconomic pathway 245 emission scenario. Aggressive management involved maintaining the weir height at 40 cm during the growing season and 15 cm during the non-growing season, with a longer period of managed flow compared to common management, which maintained the weir height at 50 cm during the growing season and 30 cm during the non-growing season. It was predicted that the 30-year average annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future. The 30-year average mean monthly temperature would increase by 3.0°C in the future compared to the historical period. We performed simulations using the calibrated Root Zone Water Quality Model 2 (RZWQM2). The average drainage discharge in the future indicated a 20% increase in the 30-year average drainage discharge for a field with free drainage. The CD with common and aggressive managements reduced drainage discharge by 59% and 67% for the historical period, whereas the performance of CD was even better for the future period (63% and 72%, respectively). The improved future performance of CD can be attributed to a shift in precipitation patterns, with reduced precipitation during the growing season and increased precipitation during the non-growing season. As a result, the more aggressive weir management during this period created additional opportunities for reducing drainage discharge. In conclusion, aggressive management resulted in a slightly better flow-reducing performance than common management while indicating that both methods would effectively reduce drainage discharge in the likely future scenario.