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Adaptation strategies of agriculture and water management to climate change in the Upper Tarim River basin, NW China

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Shaochun
  • Wortmann, Michel
  • Duethmann, Doris
  • Menz, Christoph
  • Shi, Fengzhi
  • Zhao, Chengyi
  • Su, Buda
  • Krysanova, Valentina

Abstract

The Upper Tarim River basin, contributing about 85% of the total inflow to the mainstream Tarim River, is heavily influenced by climate change and human interferences. This study is the first integrated assessment of agriculture and water management under climate change scenarios for this arid river basin in Central Asia. It aims to analyze changes in river discharge of the Upper Tarim under 28 climate projections for 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP) and the A1B scenario and 30 combinations of changes in land use (agricultural area) and water saving measures considered as adaptation strategies. Headwater discharge simulations of two hydrological models (SWIM-G and WASA) are used to drive a hydrological model of the lowland area (SWIM-oasis), taking account irrigation and river transmission losses. The projections show that the river discharge of the Upper Tarim River is likely to increase in a warmer climate if the agricultural area is reduced to the level as in 1998 even without any water saving measures. If the agricultural area increases to the 2010 level, strong water saving measures must be applied to ensure sufficient water inflow to the mainstream Tarim under all climate scenarios. If agricultural area continues to expand, there is a risk of decreasing river discharge at the end of this century under the RCP2.6 scenario. The uncertainty of the projections is large, especially in the far future, and it is mainly related to the climate and hydrological models.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Shaochun & Wortmann, Michel & Duethmann, Doris & Menz, Christoph & Shi, Fengzhi & Zhao, Chengyi & Su, Buda & Krysanova, Valentina, 2018. "Adaptation strategies of agriculture and water management to climate change in the Upper Tarim River basin, NW China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 207-224.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:203:y:2018:i:c:p:207-224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2018.03.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Niels Thevs, 2011. "Water Scarcity and Allocation in the Tarim Basin: Decision Structures and Adaptations on the Local Level," Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China aktuell, Institute of Asian Studies, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, vol. 40(3), pages 113-137.
    2. Chen, Weiping & Hou, Zhenan & Wu, Laosheng & Liang, Yongchao & Wei, Changzhou, 2010. "Evaluating salinity distribution in soil irrigated with saline water in arid regions of northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(12), pages 2001-2008, November.
    3. Shaochun Huang & Valentina Krysanova & Jianqing Zhai & Buda Su, 2015. "Impact of Intensive Irrigation Activities on River Discharge Under Agricultural Scenarios in the Semi-Arid Aksu River Basin, Northwest China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 945-959, February.
    4. Xu, Hailiang & Ye, Mao & Li, Jimei, 2008. "The water transfer effects on agricultural development in the lower Tarim River, Xinjiang of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 59-68, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xiaoping & Qi, Zhiming & Gui, Dongwei & Gu, Zhe & Ma, Liwang & Zeng, Fanjiang & Li, Lanhai, 2019. "Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 231-241.
    2. Michel Wortmann & Doris Duethmann & Christoph Menz & Tobias Bolch & Shaochun Huang & Jiang Tong & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz & Valentina Krysanova, 2022. "Projected climate change and its impacts on glaciers and water resources in the headwaters of the Tarim River, NW China/Kyrgyzstan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Feng, Meiqing & Chen, Yaning & Duan, Weili & Fang, Gonghuan & li, Zhi & Jiao, Li & Sun, Fan & Li, Yupeng & Hou, Yifeng, 2022. "Comprehensive evaluation of the water-energy-food nexus in the agricultural management of the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    4. Qi Liu & Yi Liu & Jie Niu & Dongwei Gui & Bill X. Hu, 2022. "Prediction of the Irrigation Area Carrying Capacity in the Tarim River Basin under Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-14, April.

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