Simulating crop rotation strategies with a spatiotemporal lattice model to improve legislation for the management of the maize pest Diabrotica virgifera virgifera
Crop rotation is an effective control method against the root-feeding larvae of the maize pest Diabrotica virgifera virgifera (western corn rootworm; Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). However, adults are mobile and can re-colonise previously rotated maize fields. A discrete, spatiotemporal, lattice-based and cellular automaton-like, interacting particles system model was developed to allow complex analyses for improving integrated pest management recommendations and legislations; and this through considering at one time legislation for pest control strategies such as crop rotation, characteristics of an agricultural region and the population dynamics of the pest. Sensitivity analyses identified only two of 20 varying input factors with high importance at influencing the model output, i.e. the percentage of maize fields reaching pest populations above an economic threshold. These were: the percentage of rotated maize among all maize fields and the generational growth rate of the pest in low populated fields. Increases in the percentage of rotated maize led to a decreasing logistic curve for the percentage of fields reaching pest populations above threshold. Only a small percentage of maize fields was above threshold when percentage of rotated maize exceeded 70% holding all other input factors at their most likely values. Legislation of mandatory rotation after 3 consecutive years of maize growing reduced the need for rotation of maize for D. v. virgifera management below 60%. In contrast, nearly all maize fields reached thresholds when less than 40% of maize fields were rotated. An increased growth rate resulted in more maize fields reaching populations above threshold. Astonishingly, the maize growing in an agricultural region had, in a range from 20% to 60%, little to no influence. In conclusion, legislations requiring 100% rotation for the control of this maize pest seem too strict. Metamodels are provided to easily estimate percentages of maize fields reaching pest populations above threshold, which can be used by regional or country-wide decision makers in agri-policy as well as for integrated pest management guidelines.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wesseler, Justus & Fall, El Hadji, 2010. "Potential damage costs of Diabrotica virgifera virgifera infestation in Europe – the “no control” Scenario," MPRA Paper 33231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carrasco, L.R. & Mumford, J.D. & MacLeod, A. & Knight, J.D. & Baker, R.H.A., 2010. "Comprehensive bioeconomic modelling of multiple harmful non-indigenous species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 1303-1312, April.
- Carrasco, L. Roman & Cook, David & Baker, Richard & MacLeod, Alan & Knight, Jon D. & Mumford, John D., 2012. "Towards the integration of spread and economic impacts of biological invasions in a landscape of learning and imitating agents," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 95-103.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:124:y:2014:i:c:p:39-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.