IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2016-03-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Factors and the Indian Stock Market: Exploring Long and Short Run Relationships

Author

Listed:
  • Kiran Kumar Kotha

    (Indian Institute of Management Indore, India,)

  • Bhawna Sahu

    (Indian Institute of Management Indore, India)

Abstract

The rapid growth of Indian economy during the last two decades raises empirical questions regarding the fundamental connection between stock price and key macroeconomic indicators. This paper aims to examine long and short run relations between selected macroeconomic indicators and stock market returns with reference to India. This study employs monthly data from July 2001 to July 2015 since major stock market reforms viz., ban of Badla system, introduction of rolling settlement and introduction of stock derivatives, were all implemented in July 2001. With the help of cointegration and error correction model (ECM), the study reveals the presence of long run relation between the BSE Sensex and select macroeconomic indicators viz., Exchange Rate, wholesale price index, T-bill rates and M3.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiran Kumar Kotha & Bhawna Sahu, 2016. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Indian Stock Market: Exploring Long and Short Run Relationships," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1081-1091.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-03-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/2328/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/2328/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    4. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    5. Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
    6. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    7. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    8. Kwon, Chung S. & Shin, Tai S., 1999. "Cointegration and causality between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-81.
    9. Mookerjee, Rajen & Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Macroeconomic variables and stock prices in a small open economy: The case of Singapore," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 377-388, July.
    10. Abeyratna Gunasekarage & Anirut Pisedtasalasai & David M. Power, 2004. "Macroeconomic Influence on the Stock Market: Evidence from an Emerging Market in South Asia," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 3(3), pages 285-304, December.
    11. Morelli, David, 2002. "The relationship between conditional stock market volatility and conditional macroeconomic volatility: Empirical evidence based on UK data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-110.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    14. Darrat, Ali F., 1990. "Stock Returns, Money, and Fiscal Deficits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 387-398, September.
    15. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Subrata ROY, 2020. "Foreign trade policy and economic growth: Indian evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 107-126, Autumn.
    2. Tom Jacob & Rincy Raphael & Ajina V.S., 2022. "An Econometric Study Of Herding Behaviour Of Domestic Institutional Investors In Indian Capital Market: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 29, pages 29-46, June.
    3. Michael Anthony Adams, 2020. "Fiscal Policy and Stock Market Efficiency in the USA: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 73-81.
    4. Ruqayya Aljifri, 2020. "The Macroeconomy, Oil and the Stock Market: A Multiple Equation Time Series Analysis of Saudi Arabia," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-27, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    5. Sarat Chandra Nayak & Bijan Bihari Misra, 2019. "A chemical-reaction-optimization-based neuro-fuzzy hybrid network for stock closing price prediction," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ditimi Amassoma & O. Adeleke, 2018. "Testing for the Causality between Interest Rate and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 109-124.
    2. Animesh Bhattacharjee & Joy Das, 2021. "Investigating the Long-run and the Short-run Relationship Between Domestic Macroeconomic Forces and Indian Equity Market: Evidence Based on ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Paradigm, , vol. 25(1), pages 61-76, June.
    3. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," MPRA Paper 46528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Onneetse L Sikalao-Lekobane, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(5), pages 363-372.
    5. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fromentin, Vincent, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    8. Neha GUPTA & Arya KUMAR, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and market expectations: Indian Stock Market," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 161-178, Autumn.
    9. Sirucek, Martin, 2012. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market: US review," MPRA Paper 39094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cumhur Erdem & Cem Kaan Arslan & Meziyet Sema Erdem, 2005. "Effects of macroeconomic variables on Istanbul stock exchange indexes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 987-994.
    12. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
    13. Endang Mahpudin, 2020. "The Effect of Macroeconomics on Stock Price Index in the Republic of China," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 228-236.
    14. Pooja Joshi & A. K. Giri, 2015. "Cointegration and Causality between Macroeconomic variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Analysis from Indian Economy," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 327-345, December.
    15. Babita Panda & Ajaya Kumar Panda & Pradiptarathi Panda, 2023. "Macroeconomic Response to BRICS Countries Stock Markets Using Panel VAR," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 259-272, March.
    16. R. Gopinathan & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2019. "Stock market and macroeconomic variables: new evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    18. Joseph Ato Forson & Jakkaphong Janrattanagul, 2014. "Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.
    19. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Javed Pervaiz & Sunil Kumar Chaudhary, 2017. "Nexuses between Economic Factors and Stock Returns in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 182-191, September.
    20. Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2011. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and net asset values (NAV) of equity funds: Cointegration evidence and vector error correction model of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds (MPFs)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 792-810.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Indicators; Stock Returns; Co-integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-03-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.