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Self-fulfilling and Fundamental Banking Crises: A Multinomial Logit Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Matias Fontenla

    () (University of New Mexico)

  • Fidel Gonzalez

    () (Sam Houston State University)

Abstract

This paper uses a multinomial logit model to examine the factors associated with the occurrence of both self-fulfilling and fundamental banking crises. We find evidence indicating that the two types of crises are indeed different, and are explained by different variables. Self-fulfilling crises tend to occur when bank liabilities relative to reserves are high, when the financial system is liberalized, and for high levels of short-term debt relative to total debt. They are also associated with lending booms and government surpluses. In contrast, fundamental crises are linked to depreciations of the local currency, to financial liberalization and are negatively related to the country's level of development and quality of institutions. Also, countries that experienced multiple crises are more likely to experience fundamental crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Matias Fontenla & Fidel Gonzalez, 2007. "Self-fulfilling and Fundamental Banking Crises: A Multinomial Logit Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(17), pages 1-11.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07f40002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    2. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Optimal Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1245-1284, August.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Freeman, Scott, 1988. "Banking as the Provision of Liquidity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 45-64, January.
    5. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    7. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-592, June.
    8. James Peck & Karl Shell, 2003. "Equilibrium Bank Runs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 103-123, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harold Ngalawa & Fulbert Tchana Tchana & Nicola Viegi, 2016. "Banking instability and deposit insurance: The role of moral hazard," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 323-350, November.
    2. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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