Output Growth and Monetary Policy Interaction in a Common Monetary Area: Forecasting with VEC Models in Namibia, Lesotho, South Africa and Swaziland, 1981-2004
In this study, we empirically attempt to investigate output growth forecasts as a result of dynamic interplay between money supplies and output growths of Southern African Common Monetary Area (SACMA) countries using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). In general, the results show that the forecasts for output growths in SACMA countries are quite similar to the actual values. Generally, the money supply changes have had a positive effect on output growths in all these SACMA countries. This may suggest that symmetric monetary shocks dominate in SACMA economies, which is a good indicator for an optimal currency area that would foster development in the region.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- John H. Cochrane, 1995.
"What do the VARs Mean?: Measuring the Output Effects of Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
5154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:2_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.