Output Growth and Monetary Policy Interaction in a Common Monetary Area: Forecasting with VEC Models in Namibia, Lesotho, South Africa and Swaziland, 1981-2004
In this study, we empirically attempt to investigate output growth forecasts as a result of dynamic interplay between money supplies and output growths of Southern African Common Monetary Area (SACMA) countries using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). In general, the results show that the forecasts for output growths in SACMA countries are quite similar to the actual values. Generally, the money supply changes have had a positive effect on output growths in all these SACMA countries. This may suggest that symmetric monetary shocks dominate in SACMA economies, which is a good indicator for an optimal currency area that would foster development in the region.
Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Cochrane, John H., 1998.
"What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
- John H. Cochrane, 1995. "What do the VARs Mean?: Measuring the Output Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:2_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.