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Determinants Of Exchange Rate Fluctuations For Venezuela: Application Of An Extended Mundell-Fleming Model


  • HSING, Yu


Applying and extending the Mundell-Fleming model, this study attempts to examine the behavior of short-term real exchange rates for Venezuela. It finds that the real effective exchange rate is positively associated with real government deficit spending and negatively influenced by real M2, the world interest rate, county risk, and the expected inflation rate. Hence, the authorities need to exercise fiscal discipline so that deficit spending would not be too large to cause real appreciation and hurt exports. When country risk rises due to the financial, economic or political factors, real exchange rates would depreciate.

Suggested Citation

  • HSING, Yu, 2006. "Determinants Of Exchange Rate Fluctuations For Venezuela: Application Of An Extended Mundell-Fleming Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:6:y:2006:i:1_10

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1989. " Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: A Selective Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(2), pages 401-432.
    2. Emmanuel Anoruo & Habtu Braha & Yusuf Ahmad, 2002. "Purchasing power parity: Evidence from developing Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 85-96, May.
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    4. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
    5. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
    6. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    7. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    8. Michael Schroder & Robert Dornau, 2002. "Do forecasters use monetary models? an empirical analysis of exchange rate expectations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 535-543.
    9. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    10. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "Estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate in Venezuela," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(6), pages 1-8.
    11. Osman Suliman, 2005. "Interest rate volatility, exchange rates, and external contagion," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 883-894.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignment and inflation rate persistence: Evidence from Latin American countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 202-218.

    More about this item


    Real Effective Exchange Rate; Country Risk; World Interest Rate; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean


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