Educational differences in fertility recuperation: The role of partnership trajectories in Spain

Background: The postponement of first childbirth is a well-established trend across many high-income countries. While delayed childbearing often reduces the likelihood of having additional children, some women compensate by shortening the interval before a second birth. However, the capacity to recuperate fertility after a late start varies, particularly according to educational attainment, and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Objective: This study examines how partnership trajectories shape the timing and likelihood of first and second births, with a focus on educational differences. It explores whether stable partnerships are associated with earlier childbearing and whether they facilitate fertility recuperation after delayed motherhood, with particular attention to educational differences. Methods: Using data from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey, event-history analysis is applied to a subsample of 11,813 women to estimate the timing and likelihood of first and second births. Results: Women with more than one coresidential partner over their life course are less likely to have a first child and tend to postpone motherhood. However, they also experience shorter intervals between the first and second child, suggesting fertility recuperation. This pattern is more evident among university-educated women with multiple partnerships. Contribution: This study contributes to understanding fertility recuperation by linking partnership trajectories to fertility outcomes and highlighting the moderating role of education. The findings also provide new evidence from Spain, where very late fertility patterns may constrain fertility recuperation due to biological limits.