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Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks

Author

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  • Tom Wilson

    (Charles Darwin University)

Abstract

This paper proposes an extension of the standard parameterised model migration schedule to account for highly age-concentrated student migration. Many age profiles of regional migration are characterised by sudden ‘spiked’ increases in migration intensities in the late teenage years, which are related to leaving school, and, in particular, to entry into higher education. The standard model schedule does not appear to be effective in describing the pattern at these ages. This paper therefore proposes an extension of the standard model through the addition of a student curve. The paper also describes a relatively simple Microsoft Excel-based fitting procedure. By way of illustration, both student peak and standard model schedules are fitted to the age patterns of internal migration for two Australian regions that experience substantial student migration. The student peak schedule is shown to provide an improved model of these migration age profiles. Illustrative population projections are presented to demonstrate the differences that result when model migration schedules with and without student peaks are used.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Wilson, 2010. "Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 23(8), pages 191-222, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:23:y:2010:i:8
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    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol23/8/23-8.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilya Kashnitsky & Nikita Mkrtchyan & Oleg Leshukov, 2016. "Interregional Migration of Youths in Russia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Demographic Statistics," Educational Studies, Higher School of Economics, issue 3, pages 169-203.
    2. Aude Bernard & Martin Bell, 2015. "Smoothing internal migration age profiles for comparative research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(33), pages 915-948, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Australia; Microsoft Excel; model migration schedule; population projection; student migration;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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