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Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Schoen

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Vladimir Canudas-Romo

    (Australian National University)

Abstract

Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL) has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE), to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Schoen & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2005. "Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(5), pages 117-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:13:y:2005:i:5
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2005.13.5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James W. Vaupel & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2002. "Decomposing demographic change into direct vs. compositional components," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14.
    2. James W. Vaupel, 2002. "Life Expectancy at Current Rates vs. Current Conditions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(8), pages 365-378.
    3. John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2002. "How Long Do We Live?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 13-29, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Guillot, 2006. "Tempo effects in mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26.
    2. Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2008. "The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(30), pages 1179-1204.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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