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Firm and Guarantor Risk, Risk Contagion, and the Interfirm Spread among Insured Deposits

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  • Cook, Douglas O.
  • Spellman, Lewis J.

Abstract

We develop a model of third party guaranteed debt and show that interest rate premiums are multiplicatively related to firm and guarantor risk. We apply the model to thrifts issuing CDs guaranteed by the FSLIC and then estimate firm probabilities of insolvency and guarantor risk across 20 observed months. This time period spans the insolvency of the guarantor followed by two recapitalizations. The relative stability in firm risk across time offers no evidence of generalized risk contagion among firms. We attribute elevated CD premiums and rate spreads to increases in guarantor risk rather than changes in firm risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Cook, Douglas O. & Spellman, Lewis J., 1996. "Firm and Guarantor Risk, Risk Contagion, and the Interfirm Spread among Insured Deposits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(02), pages 265-281, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:31:y:1996:i:02:p:265-281_00
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    Cited by:

    1. McIntyre, M.L. & Tripe, David & Zhuang, Xiaojie (Jeff), 2009. "Testing for effective market supervision of New Zealand banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 25-34, January.
    2. Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomic shocks and banking supervision," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 93-110, September.
    3. Bartholdy, Jan & Boyle, Glenn W. & Stover, Roger D., 2003. "Deposit insurance and the risk premium in bank deposit rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 699-717, April.
    4. Laeven, Luc, 2002. "Pricing of deposit insurance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2871, The World Bank.
    5. Guo, Lin, 2003. "Inferring market information from the price and quantity of S&L deposits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2177-2202, November.

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