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The Contrarian Investment Strategy Does Not Work in Canadian Markets

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  • Kryzanowski, Lawrence
  • Zhang, Hao

Abstract

This paper tests the overreaction hypothesis using monthly data for stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the 1950–1988 period. Unlike De Bondt and Thaler (1985), (1987), it finds statistically significant continuation behavior for the next one (and two) year(s) for winners and losers, and insignificant reversal behavior for winners and losers over longer formation/test periods of up to ten years. While the systematic risks of the winners decrease significantly over all test periods, the systematic risks of the losers increase significantly for only the 12-month formation/test periods (unlike Chan (1988)). The only significant change in variance from the formation to test periods occurs for the losers for the 12-month formation/test periods. The findings are robust for January versus non-January and size-based portfolios (unlike Zarowin (1989), (1990)). The findings are robust for various performance measures (specifically, market-adjusted CAR, and the Jensen (1968) and Sharpe (1966) portfolio performance measures).

Suggested Citation

  • Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Zhang, Hao, 1992. "The Contrarian Investment Strategy Does Not Work in Canadian Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 383-395, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:27:y:1992:i:03:p:383-395_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. C Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2006. "The effect of time-varying risk on the profitability of contrarian investment strategies in a thinly traded market: a Kalman filter approach," Post-Print hal-01096031, HAL.
    2. D. E. Allen & Robert Prince, 1995. "The winner/loser hypothesis: some preliminary Australian evidence on the impact of changing risk," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 280-283.
    3. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Nicholas Apergis & Christis Hassapis & Christina Christou & Steve Johnson, 2015. "International Earnings To Price Ratio Convergence: Evidence From The European Union," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(5), pages 37-55.
    5. Bartholdy, Jan, 1998. "Changes in earnings-price ratios and excess returns: A case of investor over-reaction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 237-252.
    6. Baytas, Ahmet & Cakici, Nusret, 1999. "Do markets overreact: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 1121-1144, July.
    7. Muhammad Kashif & Sanyah Saad & Imran Umer Chhapra & Farhan Ahmed, 2018. "An Empirical Evidence of Over Reaction Hypothesis on Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 449-465, April.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Momentum effects in the cryptocurrency market after one-day abnormal returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 251-266, September.
    9. Bowman, Robert G. & Iverson, David, 1998. "Short-run overreaction in the New Zealand stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 475-491, November.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2018. "Short-Term Price Overreactions: Identification, Testing, Exploitation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 913-940, April.
    11. Antonios Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou, 2006. "Short‐term Contrarian Strategies in the London Stock Exchange: Are They Profitable? Which Factors Affect Them?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5‐6), pages 839-867, June.
    12. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, September.
    13. Jaspal Singh & Kiranpreet Kaur, 2014. "Testing Ben Graham’s Stock Selection Criteria in Indian Stock Market," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 39(1), pages 43-62, February.
    14. Walid Saleh, 2007. "Overreaction: the sensitivity of defining the duration of the formation period," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 45-61.
    15. Gaunt, Clive, 2000. "Overreaction in the Australian equity market: 1974-1997," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 375-398, July.
    16. Gülin Vardar & Berna Okan, 2008. "Short Term Overreaction Effect: Evidence on the Turkish Stock Market," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Emerging Economic Issues in a Globalizing World, pages 155-165, Izmir University of Economics.
    17. Asiya Sohail & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "The Global Financial Crisis and Investors’ Behaviour; Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:106, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    18. Daske, Stefan, 2002. "Winner-Loser-Effekte am deutschen Aktienmarkt," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,87, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    19. Kwame Addae-Dapaah & James Webb & Kim Ho & Yan Tan, 2010. "Industrial Real Estate Investment: Does the Contrarian Strategy Work?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 193-227, August.
    20. Alves, Paulo & Carvalho, Luís, 2020. "Recent evidence on international stock market’s overreaction," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    21. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    22. Gunaratne, P. S. M. & Yonesawa, Y., 1997. "Return reversals in the Tokyo Stock Exchange: A test of stock market overreaction," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 363-384, August.
    23. Richard Chung & Lawrence Kryzanowski, 1998. "Are the Market Effects Associated with Revisions to the TSE300 Index Robust?," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-36, March.

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