IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/etheor/v31y2015i01p152-179_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trygve Haavelmo And The Emergence Of Causal Calculus

Author

Listed:
  • Pearl, Judea

Abstract

Haavelmo was the first to recognize the capacity of economic models to guide policies. This paper describes some of the barriers that Haavelmo’s ideas have had (and still have) to overcome and lays out a logical framework that has evolved from Haavelmo’s insight and matured into a coherent and comprehensive account of the relationships between theory, data, and policy questions. The mathematical tools that emerge from this framework now enable investigators to answer complex policy and counterfactual questions using simple routines, some by mere inspection of the model’s structure. Several such problems are illustrated by examples, including misspecification tests, nonparametric identification, mediation analysis, and introspection. Finally, we observe that economists are largely unaware of the benefits that Haavelmo’s ideas bestow upon them and, to close this gap, we identify concrete recent advances in causal analysis that economists can utilize in research and education.

Suggested Citation

  • Pearl, Judea, 2015. "Trygve Haavelmo And The Emergence Of Causal Calculus," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 152-179, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:31:y:2015:i:01:p:152-179_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0266466614000231/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tapia, Jose, 2015. "Profits encourage investment, investment dampens profits, government spending does not prime the pump — A DAG investigation of business-cycle dynamics," MPRA Paper 64985, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2015.
    2. Arthur Lewbel, 2018. "The Identification Zoo - Meanings of Identification in Econometrics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 957, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2019.
    3. repec:ris:apltrx:0340 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. LeRoy, Stephen F., 2019. "Causal Inference," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6pc1x9r6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    5. repec:wyz:journl:id:539 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Biørn, Erik, 2017. "Identification, Instruments, Omitted Variables, and Rudimentary Models: Fallacies in the ‘Experimental Approach’ to Econometrics," Memorandum 13/2017, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:31:y:2015:i:01:p:152-179_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/ect .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.