Discount Rate Changes and Market Timing: A Multinational Study
This study investigates whether discount rate changes serve as an informative signal for investors to enter or exit the stock market. Based on the signal, a market timing strategy is formulated and its performance relative to a passive buy-and-hold strategy is tested with several performance evaluation methods. Empirical evidence derived from data of seven developed countries over more than 29 years is virtually invariant to the performance measures employed and uniformly supports the superiority of the market timing strategy. However, when the full study period is divided into pre-1994 and post-1993 sub-periods, the dominance of the market timing strategy essentially vanished over the latter sub-sample period. Thus, the tactic of basing investment strategy formulation on discount rate changes has turned unproductive in recent years. There is actually weak evidence over the post-1993 time period in favor of the passive buy-and-hold strategy.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Prather, Laurie & Bertin, William J., 1998. "The implication of discount rate changes for market timing," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 21-33.
- Becker, Connie & Ferson, Wayne & Myers, David H. & Schill, Michael J., 1999. "Conditional market timing with benchmark investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 119-148, April.
- Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M., 2006. "Security markets and the information content of monetary policy turning points," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 477-494, September.
- Lehmann, Bruce N & Modest, David M, 1987. " Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 233-65, June.
- Thorbecke, Willem, 1997.
" On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-54, June.
- William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119.
- Chang, Eric C & Lewellen, Wilbur G, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Investment Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 57-72, January.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990.
"A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- William Goetzmann & Jonathan Ingersoll & Zoran Ivkovich, 1998.
"Monthly Measurement of Daily Timers,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm88, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2000.
- Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1995. "Discount rate changes and security returns in the U.S., 1962-1991," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-95, April.
- Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "A Study of Monthly Mutual Fund Returns and Performance Evaluation Techniques," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 419-444, September.
- Mann, Thomas & Atra, Robert J. & Dowen, Richard, 2004. "U.S. monetary policy indicators and international stock returns: 1970-2001," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 543-558.
- Conover, C. Mitchell & Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1999. "Monetary environments and international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1357-1381, September.
- Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
- Lee, Cheng Few & Rahman, Shafiqur, 1990. "Market Timing, Selectivity, and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(2), pages 261-78, April.
- Patelis, Alex D, 1997. " Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-72, December.
- Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
- Smirlock, Michael J & Yawitz, Jess B, 1985. " Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1141-58, September.
- Waud, Roger N, 1970. "Public Interpretation of Federal Reserve Discount Rate Changes: Evidence on the 'Announcement Effect'," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 231-50, March.
- Kao, G Wenchi & Cheng, Louis T W & Chan, Kam C, 1998. "International Mutual Fund Selectivity and Market Time during Up and Down Market Conditions," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 127-44, May.
- Pelaez, Rolando F, 1998. "Economically Significant Stock Market Forecasts," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 65-76, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2009:v:10:i:2:p:329-349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Qiang Gao)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.