IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cuf/journl/y2009v10i1p1-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Firm Liquidation and Economic Crisis under Unexpected Exchange Rate Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang Gong

    (China Center for Economic Research, Peking University)

  • Shen Jia

    (China Center for Economic Research, Peking University)

  • Justin Yifu Lin

    (World Bank and Peking University)

Abstract

This paper studies the causes, mechanisms and consequences of decreasing firm value and welfare loss in an economy under a fixed exchange rate regime when there is an unexpected appreciation in domestic currency. We also study the possible economic crisis caused by the exchange rate shock. We consider the established production capacity as well as the training of firmspecific labors before production to obtain that unexpected appreciation in domestic currency leads to unemployment of firm workers as well as a decrease in the firm¡¯s output and revenue. Furthermore, when the exchange rate appreciates to a certain degree, it is likely to induce economic crisis¡ªfirms will stop production completely which will not only decrease the firm¡¯s value, but also create a greater loss of social welfare due to the waste of existing capacity and human capital in the economy. Our study also implies that when an economy shifts from a fixed exchange rate regime to a more flexible one, government could adopt gradual reform policies and partial deregulation of the exchange rate to reduce or prevent social welfare loss when domestic currency faces appreciation pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Gong & Shen Jia & Justin Yifu Lin, 2009. "Firm Liquidation and Economic Crisis under Unexpected Exchange Rate Shock," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2009:v:10:i:1:p:1-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeconf.net/Articles/May2009/aef100101.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://down.aefweb.net/AefArticles/aef100101.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    2. Inci Ötker, 2007. "Moving to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility; Operational Aspects Based on Lessons from Detailed Country Experiences," IMF Occasional Papers 256, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
    4. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
    5. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    6. David M. Kreps & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1983. "Quantity Precommitment and Bertrand Competition Yield Cournot Outcomes," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 326-337, Autumn.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rui Li, 2018. "Could Risk Management Be Harmful to Firms?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 247-263, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange shocks; Firm liquidation; Financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2009:v:10:i:1:p:1-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Qiang Gao). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emcufcn.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.