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Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México: ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones

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  • Carlos Alberto Carrasco
  • Édgar Demetrio Tovar-García

Abstract

En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura senala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como variable explicativa (algo ignorado previamente). Los resultados difieren de otras investigaciones: no se encuentra evidencia robusta sobre el efecto del ingreso, hay evidencia de la importancia del tipo de cambio real y se encuentra un nexo positivo, aunque débil, con las exportaciones consistentes de bienes de alta tecnología, lo cual explica parcialmente el persistente déficit comercial de México.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Alberto Carrasco & Édgar Demetrio Tovar-García, 2019. "Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México: ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 11(2), pages 259-276, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:018466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Rosalinda Arriaga Navarrete & Heri Oscar Landa Díaz, 2016. "Competitividad del Sector Externo Mexicano: Un análisis de la Condición Marshall-Lerner," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos A. Carrasco & Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, 2021. "Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 919-941, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance comercial bilateral; composición de las exportaciones; industrias de alta intensidad tecnológica; México.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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