When Populists Win but Are Excluded From Power: Explaining Post‐Electoral Dynamics of Democratic Satisfaction

This article investigates the dynamics of satisfaction with democracy when a populist party wins an election but is subsequently excluded from governing. While classic research highlights winner–loser gaps as a key determinant of democratic satisfaction, we argue that under proportional representation, especially in times of rising populism, post-electoral dynamics unfold in two distinct stages shaped not only by electoral results but also by coalition bargaining. We examine this argument with a case study of the 2024 Austrian parliamentary election, in which the populist radical right Freedom Party (FPÖ) won a plurality of votes yet was excluded from government following the longest coalition negotiations in Austrian history. Using data from the AUTNES Online Panel Study, which features two post-electoral panel waves, we disentangle the effects of winner–loser perceptions, populist attitudes, democratic norms, and evaluations of procedural fairness. Our findings show that electoral victory did not increase satisfaction with democracy among FPÖ voters, largely due to their low confidence in electoral integrity and strong populist attitudes, which reinforced dissatisfaction. After coalition formation, weak democratic norms regarding the acceptance of unfavorable democratic decisions, together with the perception that excluding the plurality winner was procedurally unfair, contributed to a further decline, reaching a new low point. By demonstrating how orientations towards electoral and post-electoral outcomes and processes shape democratic attitudes, this study provides a more nuanced understanding of satisfaction with democracy in proportional systems amid rising challenges to democratic legitimacy.