IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

(A)symetrie et convergence des chocs macroeconomiques en Asie de l'Est : une analyse dynamique

  • Cyriac Guillaumin

L’objectif de cet article est d’identifier le degre d’(a)symetrie des chocs macroeconomiques qui affectent les pays de l’Asean+3 et d’examiner leur evolution au cours du temps afin de mieux comprendre l’enjeu d’une zone monetaire asiatique. Dans un premier temps, nous utilisons un processus VAR structurel pour decomposer les chocs macroeconomiques puis determiner leur degre de correlation. Ces coefficients de correlation sont calcules de maniere inconditionnelle sur toute la periode, ce qui ne permet pas de saisir leur evolution. C’est pourquoi, dans un second temps, nous utilisons une methodologie basee sur les modeles a parametres variables dans le temps. Les resultats montrent que les chocs de demande, monetaires et externes sont tres correles entre les pays d’Asie de l’Est. Cependant, les chocs d’offre sont plus heterogenes, surtout depuis la crise financiere de 1997. Nous montrons egalement que les chocs de demande, monetaires et externes convergent davantage que les chocs d’offre pour la plupart des pays. Ces resultats seraient un argument en faveur des changes fixes a l’interieur de la region, du type union monetaire par exemple.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/francgraph/publications/ecointern/rev114/ei114b.htm
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 114 ()
Pages: 29-68

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2008-2tb
Contact details of provider: Postal: 113, rue de Grenelle, 75700 Paris SP07
Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
Web page: http://www.cepii.fr

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2006. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Working Papers 12353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2007. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 1-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Carlos Cortinhas, 2006. "Asymmetry of Shocks and Convergence in Selected Asean Countries: A Dynamic Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 3/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  4. Francois-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2005. "Quelques applications du filtre de Kalman en finance: estimation et prévision de la volatilité stochastique et du rapport cours-bénéfices," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp0312005, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
  5. Thiam Hee NG, 2002. "Should The Southeast Asian Countries Form A Currency Union?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 40(2), pages 113-134, 06.
  6. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June.
  7. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  9. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Xu, Xinpeng, 2006. "A currency union for Hong Kong and Mainland China?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 894-911, October.
  11. Bamba, Lambert N'galadjo, 2004. "Analyse du Processus de Convergence Dans la Zone UEMOA," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  12. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai, 2003. "A common currency peg in East Asia? Perspectives from Western Europe," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 331-350, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2008-2tb. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.