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Règle de Taylor vs Règle-icm. Application à la zone euro


  • Grégory Levieuge


The aim of this article is to determine what is the optimal strategy of central banks (in particular of ecb) towards the exchange rate. According to the optimal monetary policy rules determined from a two-country (ea-usa) hybrid model with rational expectations, monetary authorities have to react to the exchange rate, in addition to the inflation and the output gap. This result confirms the superiority of strategies built around a Monetary Conditions Index (mci) on Taylor rules. Besides, the sensitive analysis of mci-rules according to the nature of shocks does not allow to assert that theses rules imply systematically a conflict of objective in case of real shocks. But the uncertainty which characterizes the equilibrium value of the exchange rate tends to minimize, even to annihilate, the role played by the exchange rate in the optimal monetary policy strategy. Classification JEL : E43, E47, E5.

Suggested Citation

  • Grégory Levieuge, 2006. "Règle de Taylor vs Règle-icm. Application à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(1), pages 85-121.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_571_121

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    2. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2003. "Robust European monetary policy rules," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 889-894.
    3. Naug, Bjorn & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. " Pricing to Market in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(3), pages 329-350.
    4. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
    6. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    7. Peter A. Tinsley, 1993. "Fitting both data and theories: polynomial adjustment costs and error- correction decision rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit


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