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Règle de Taylor vs Règle-ICM : Application à la Zone Euro

Author

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  • Grégory Levieuge

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR6586] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to determine what is the optimal strategy of central banks (in particular of ecb) towards the exchange rate. According to the optimal monetary policy rules determined from a two-country (ea-usa) hybrid model with rational expectations, monetary authorities have to react to the exchange rate, in addition to the inflation and the output gap. This result confirms the superiority of strategies built around a Monetary Conditions Index (mci) on Taylor rules. Besides, the sensitive analysis of mci-rules according to the nature of shocks does not allow to assert that theses rules imply systematically a conflict of objective in case of real shocks. But the uncertainty which characterizes the equilibrium value of the exchange rate tends to minimize, even to annihilate, the role played by the exchange rate in the optimal monetary policy strategy. Classification JEL?: E43, E47, E5.
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Suggested Citation

  • Grégory Levieuge, 2003. "Règle de Taylor vs Règle-ICM : Application à la Zone Euro," Post-Print halshs-00258312, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00258312
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2003. "Robust European monetary policy rules," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(14), pages 889-894.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg (ed.), 1997. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026252242x, December.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
    5. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    6. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, December.
    7. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Peter A. Tinsley, 1993. "Fitting both data and theories: polynomial adjustment costs and error- correction decision rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 24, European Central Bank.
    10. Naug, Bjorn & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. " Pricing to Market in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(3), pages 329-350.
    11. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "Openness, imperfect exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 947-981, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Grégory Levieuge, 2018. "La politique monétaire doit-elle être utilisée à des fins de stabilité financière ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 63-104.
    2. Tronzano, Marco, 2009. "Assessing the Volatility of the Euro on Foreign Exchange Markets: Further Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 103-131.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Règle; Taylor; Règle-ICM; Application; Zone; Euro;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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