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Time-Varying Betas Help in Asset Pricing: The Threshold CAPM

Author

Listed:
  • Akdeniz Levent

    (Bilkent University, Graduate School of Business)

  • Altay-Salih Aslihan

    (Bilkent University, Graduate School of Business)

  • Caner Mehmet

    (University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Although there is a consensus about time variation in market betas, it is not clear how this variation should be captured. Several researchers continue to analyze different versions of the conditional CAPM. However, Ghysels (1998) shows that these conditional CAPM models fail to capture the dynamics of beta risk. In this study, we introduce a new model, threshold CAPM, which outperforms both the conditional and unconditional CAPMs by generating smaller pricing errors. We also show that the beta risk changes through time with the changes in the economic environment and the dynamics of time variation of beta differ across industries. These findings have important implications for asset allocation, portfolio selection, and hedging decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Akdeniz Levent & Altay-Salih Aslihan & Caner Mehmet, 2003. "Time-Varying Betas Help in Asset Pricing: The Threshold CAPM," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:6:y:2003:i:4:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Hong, Jiawei & Yu, Xiaojian & Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Xili, 2022. "The dispersion of beta estimates and the investors’ heterogeneous Beliefs：Evidence from the stock market in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 540-550.
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    8. Erdos, Péter & Ormos, Mihály & Zibriczky, Dávid, 2011. "Non-parametric and semi-parametric asset pricing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1150-1162, May.
    9. Cai, Zongwu & Ren, Yu & Yang, Bingduo, 2015. "A semiparametric conditional capital asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 117-126.
    10. Valentina ZOZULYA & Evgeny SOKOLOV & Evgeny KOSTYRIN & Sergey KOROLEV, 2021. "The effectiveness of applying beta-coefficient modifications when calculating returns on shares in Russian companies," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 31-52, June.
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    14. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
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