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Time-Varying Betas Help in Asset Pricing: The Threshold CAPM

Author

Listed:
  • Akdeniz Levent

    (Bilkent University, Graduate School of Business)

  • Altay-Salih Aslihan

    (Bilkent University, Graduate School of Business)

  • Caner Mehmet

    (University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Although there is a consensus about time variation in market betas, it is not clear how this variation should be captured. Several researchers continue to analyze different versions of the conditional CAPM. However, Ghysels (1998) shows that these conditional CAPM models fail to capture the dynamics of beta risk. In this study, we introduce a new model, threshold CAPM, which outperforms both the conditional and unconditional CAPMs by generating smaller pricing errors. We also show that the beta risk changes through time with the changes in the economic environment and the dynamics of time variation of beta differ across industries. These findings have important implications for asset allocation, portfolio selection, and hedging decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Akdeniz Levent & Altay-Salih Aslihan & Caner Mehmet, 2003. "Time-Varying Betas Help in Asset Pricing: The Threshold CAPM," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:6:y:2003:i:4:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zongwu Cai, 2013. "Functional Coefficient Models for Economic and Financial Data," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
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    3. Cathy W. S. Chen & Muyi Li & Nga T. H. Nguyen & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2017. "On Asymmetric Market Model with Heteroskedasticity and Quantile Regression," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 155-174, January.
    4. Xiangjin B. Chen & Jiti Gao & Degui Li & Param Silvapulle, 2013. "Nonparametric Estimation and Parametric Calibration of Time-Varying Coefficient Realized Volatility Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 21/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
    6. Cathy Chen & Simon Lin & Philip Yu, 2012. "Smooth Transition Quantile Capital Asset Pricing Models with Heteroscedasticity," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(1), pages 19-48, June.
    7. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    8. Martin Vance L. & Sarkar Saikat & Kanto Antti Jaakko, 2014. "Modelling nonlinearities in equity returns: the mean impact curve analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 51-72, February.
    9. Erdos, Péter & Ormos, Mihály & Zibriczky, Dávid, 2011. "Non-parametric and semi-parametric asset pricing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1150-1162, May.
    10. Geonwoo Kim & Hyuncheul Lim & Sungchul Lee, 2015. "On pricing options with stressed-beta in a reduced form model," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 29-50, April.
    11. Hong, Jiawei & Yu, Xiaojian & Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Xili, 2022. "The dispersion of beta estimates and the investors’ heterogeneous Beliefs：Evidence from the stock market in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 540-550.
    12. Paulo Rogerio Faustino Matos & Fabrício Carneiro Linhares & Gustavo Zech Sylvestre, 2012. "Analysis of the non-linear effect of net equity in the pricing of stock investment funds," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 9(4), pages 1-26, October.
    13. Yunmi Kim, 2012. "Autoregressive conditional beta," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1489-1494.
    14. Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Sanabria-Buenaventura, Elioth Mirsha, 2014. "Non-parametric and semi-parametric asset pricing: An application to the Colombian stock exchange," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 261-268.
    15. Cai, Zongwu & Ren, Yu & Yang, Bingduo, 2015. "A semiparametric conditional capital asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 117-126.
    16. Zhao, Yan-Yong & Lin, Jin-Guan, 2019. "Estimation and test of jump discontinuities in varying coefficient models with empirical applications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 145-163.
    17. Valentina ZOZULYA & Evgeny SOKOLOV & Evgeny KOSTYRIN & Sergey KOROLEV, 2021. "The effectiveness of applying beta-coefficient modifications when calculating returns on shares in Russian companies," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 31-52, June.
    18. Jean-Pierre Fouque & Adam Tashman, 2012. "Option pricing under a stressed-beta model," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 183-203, May.
    19. Laurent Callot & Mehmet Caner & Anders Bredahl Kock & Juan Andres Riquelme, 2017. "Sharp Threshold Detection Based on Sup-Norm Error Rates in High-Dimensional Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 250-264, April.

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