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A Theory of Vague Expected Utility

Author

Listed:
  • Manzini Paola

    () (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Mariotti Marco

    () (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

We propose a new theory of choice between lotteries, which combines an 'economic' view of decision making - based on a rational, though incomplete, ordering - with a 'psychological' view - based on heuristics. This theory can explain observed violations of EU theory, namely all cyclical patterns of choice as well as violations of independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Manzini Paola & Mariotti Marco, 2004. "A Theory of Vague Expected Utility," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejtec:v:topics.4:y:2004:i:1:n:10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amartya Sen, 1997. "Maximization and the Act of Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 745-780, July.
    2. Kunreuther, Howard & Novemsky, Nathan & Kahneman, Daniel, 2001. "Making Low Probabilities Useful," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 103-120, September.
    3. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1988. "Similarity and decision-making under risk (is there a utility theory resolution to the Allais paradox?)," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-153, October.
    4. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    5. Slovic, Paul & Finucane, Melissa & Peters, Ellen & MacGregor, Donald G., 2002. "Rational actors or rational fools: implications of the affect heuristic for behavioral economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 329-342.
    6. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-824, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti, 2008. "On the Representation of Incomplete Preferences Over Risky Alternatives," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 303-323, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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