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Intranational Trade Diversion, the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement, and the L Curve

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  • Coulombe Serge

    () (University of Ottawa)

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the comparative evolution of intranational and international trade in the Canadian provinces since 1981. We establish a striking empirical fact, the L curve, that characterizes the comparative evolution of intranational (interprovincial) and international trade shares to GDP between 1981 and 2000. We also use a panel data model to evaluate the impact of changing trade costs induced by the CUSFTA on the intensity of international and interprovincial trade. The analysis casts doubt on the intranational trade diversion hypothesis, common in trade models such as the structural gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) that was used recently to revisit the Canada–U.S. border effect. International trade appears to complement rather than substitute for interprovincial trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Coulombe Serge, 2004. "Intranational Trade Diversion, the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement, and the L Curve," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:topics.4:y:2004:i:1:n:16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Kimberly A. Clausing, 2001. "Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 677-696, August.
    4. Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe, 2003. "Regional Perspectives on Dollarization in Canada," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 541-570.
    5. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Andresen, 2009. "The geographical effects of the NAFTA on Canadian provinces," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 43(1), pages 251-265, March.

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