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Technical Trading and Testing of Intra-day Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market

Listed author(s):
  • Petr Zeman

    ()

    (University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice)

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    Due to the growing interest of investors in intra-day trading it is necessary to pay even more attention to the analysis of the microstructure of financial markets. This article analyses the behaviour of the exchange rate EUR/USD at short intervals. The base aim of this paper is to verify the possibility to reach the above average return through automated trading systems based on technical analysis. In the case that, the selected strategies will be achieved above average profits, it is possible to reject the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. Otherwise, it can be argued that it could not disprove the hypothesis of efficient market in a very short time intervals and movement of the exchange rate EUR/USD is not predictable.

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    File URL: http://ojs.ef.jcu.cz/acta/article/download/447/439
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    Article provided by University of South Bohemia in Ceske Budejovice in its journal Acta Universitatis Bohemiae Meridionales.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 3-13

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    Handle: RePEc:boh:actaub:v:17:y:2014:i:1:p:3-13
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    Web page: http://acta.ef.jcu.cz/

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    1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-182, March.
    2. Okunev, John & White, Derek, 2003. "Do Momentum-Based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 425-447, June.
    3. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
    4. Logue, Dennis E & Sweeney, Richard James, 1977. "'White-Noise' in Imperfect Markets: The Case of the Franc/Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 761-768, June.
    5. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
    6. Saacke, Peter, 2002. "Technical analysis and the effectiveness of central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 459-479, August.
    7. Cornell, W Bradford & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1978. "The Efficiency of the Market for Foreign Exchange under Floating Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 111-120, February.
    8. Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(04), pages 405-426, December.
    9. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
    10. Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2012. "The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    11. Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
    12. Hsien-Yi Lee & Khatanbaatar Sodoikhuu, 2012. "Efficiency Tests in Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 216-224.
    13. BEN OMRANE, Walid & VAN OPPEN, Hervé, 2004. "The predictive success and profitability of chart patterns in the Euro/Dollar foreign exchange market," CORE Discussion Papers 2004035, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    14. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December.
    15. Curcio, Riccardo, et al, 1997. "Do Technical Trading Rules Generate Profits? Conclusions from the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 267-280, October.
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