IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/blg/reveco/v69y2017i3p19-28.html

Estimating The Return Of The Financial Titles Of The Companies From The Manufacturing Industry, Listed On The Bucharest Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • BALTES Nicolae

    (Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu)

  • DRAGOE Alexandra-Gabriela-Maria

    (Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu)

Abstract

The paper presents a method of estimating the maximum expected loss of value that can be recorded by holding a portfolio of financial titles for a certain period of time, through the VaR model, using Monte Carlo simulation method. The research was based on the closing prices of 33 companies from the manufacturing industry in Romania, listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The results of the paper showed that, for a portfolio composed of the financial titles of the 33 studied companies, in which it will be invested an amount of 1.000.000 lei, the maximum daily loss, estimated during the studied period of 01.01.2016-31.12.2016, was 2.513,47 lei.

Suggested Citation

  • BALTES Nicolae & DRAGOE Alexandra-Gabriela-Maria, 2017. "Estimating The Return Of The Financial Titles Of The Companies From The Manufacturing Industry, Listed On The Bucharest Stock Exchange," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(3), pages 19-28, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:blg:reveco:v:69:y:2017:i:3:p:19-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economice.ulbsibiu.ro/revista.economica/archive/69302baltes&dragoe.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis X. Diebold (ed.), 2012. "Financial Risk Measurement and Management," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14102, June.
    2. David E. Allen & Robert Powell, 2009. "Transitional credit modelling and its relationship to market value at risk: an Australian sectoral perspective," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(3), pages 425-444, September.
    3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    4. Miguel A. Ferreira, 2005. "Evaluating Interest Rate Covariance Models Within a Value-at-Risk Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 126-168.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 75, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olkhov, Victor, 2021. "To VaR, or Not to VaR, That is the Question," MPRA Paper 105458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. F. Lilla, 2016. "High Frequency vs. Daily Resolution: the Economic Value of Forecasting Volatility Models," Working Papers wp1084, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    4. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    5. Massacci, Daniele, 2014. "A two-regime threshold model with conditional skewed Student t distributions for stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 9-20.
    6. F. Lilla, 2017. "High Frequency vs. Daily Resolution: the Economic Value of Forecasting Volatility Models - 2nd ed," Working Papers wp1099, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Dias, Alexandra, 2013. "Market capitalization and Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5248-5260.
    8. David William Cattell, 2012. "An overview of component unit pricing theory," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 81-92, December.
    9. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Hassan Belkacem Ghassan & Abdelkrim Ahmed Guendouz, 2019. "Panel modeling of z-score: evidence from Islamic and conventional Saudi banks," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 448-468, July.
    11. Ahmed, Shamim & Bu, Ziwen & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2023. "Which factor model? A systematic return covariation perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 738-757.
    13. Daniele Massacci, 2017. "Tail Risk Dynamics in Stock Returns: Links to the Macroeconomy and Global Markets Connectedness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(9), pages 3072-3089, September.
    14. André A. P. Santos & Francisco J. Nogales & Esther Ruiz, 2013. "Comparing Univariate and Multivariate Models to Forecast Portfolio Value-at-Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 400-441, March.
    15. Fong Chan, Kam & Gray, Philip, 2006. "Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 283-300.
    16. Lima, Luiz Renato & Néri, Breno Pinheiro, 2007. "Comparing Value-at-Risk Methodologies," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.
    17. Piotr Bórawski & Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska & Bogdan Klepacki & Lisa Holden & Tomasz Rokicki & Andrzej Parzonko, 2024. "Changes in Gross Nuclear Electricity Production in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-31, July.
    18. Olkhov, Victor, 2020. "Business Cycles as Collective Risk Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 104598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
    20. Xianzi Yang & Chen Zhang & Yu Yang & Wenjun Wang & Zulfiqar Ali Wagan, 2022. "A new risk measurement method for China's carbon market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1280-1290, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:blg:reveco:v:69:y:2017:i:3:p:19-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eduard Alexandru Stoica (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feulbro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.