IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/stratm/v24y2003i9p821-838.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting a firm's forecasting ability: the roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention

Author

Listed:
  • Rodolphe Durand

Abstract

Recent research shows that forecasting ability is an organizational distinctive competence. We propose and test a model accounting for interfirm differences in forecasting ability. After controlling for reciprocal effects, we find that two principal firm‐level factors (i.e., organizational illusion of control and organizational attention) influence both bias and magnitude of errors in estimates. High organizational illusion of control increases positive forecast bias. As for organizational attention, higher relative investments in market information appear to reduce positive forecast bias and magnitude of errors; they also moderate forecast bias due to illusion of control. Finally, higher relative investments in employee capability increase both negative forecast bias and, unexpectedly, magnitude of errors for the majority of observed cases. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolphe Durand, 2003. "Predicting a firm's forecasting ability: the roles of organizational illusion of control and organizational attention," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9), pages 821-838, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:24:y:2003:i:9:p:821-838
    DOI: 10.1002/smj.339
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.339
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/smj.339?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. De Baets, Shari & Harvey, Nigel, 2018. "Forecasting from time series subject to sporadic perturbations: Effectiveness of different types of forecasting support," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 163-180.
    2. Essuman, Dominic & Bruce, Patience Aku & Ataburo, Henry & Asiedu-Appiah, Felicity & Boso, Nathaniel, 2022. "Linking resource slack to operational resilience: Integration of resource-based and attention-based perspectives," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    3. Simon, Mark & Shrader, Rodney C., 2012. "Entrepreneurial actions and optimistic overconfidence: The role of motivated reasoning in new product introductions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 291-309.
    4. Pettit, Nathan C. & Doyle, Sarah P. & Kim, Hee Young & Hurwitz, Anat, 2022. "Rank extrapolation: Asymmetric forecasts of future rank after rank change," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Biru, Ashenafi & Filatotchev, Igor & Bruton, Garry & Gilbert, David, 2023. "CEOs’ regulatory focus and firm internationalization: The moderating effects of CEO overconfidence, narcissism and career horizon," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(3).
    6. Larsen, Marcus M., 2016. "Failing to estimate the costs of offshoring: A study on process performance," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 307-318.
    7. Titus Jr., Varkey K. & Covin, Jeffrey G. & Slevin, Dennis P., 2011. "Aligning strategic processes in pursuit of firm growth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 446-453, May.
    8. Shinkle, George A. & Hodgkinson, Gerard P. & Gary, Michael Shayne, 2021. "Government policy changes and organizational goal setting: Extensions to the behavioral theory of the firm," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 406-417.
    9. Meissner, Philip & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "The effect of cognitive diversity on the illusion of control bias in strategic decisions: An experimental investigation," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 430-439.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:24:y:2003:i:9:p:821-838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/0143-2095 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.