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Application of community‐based system dynamics for the management of rural households' vulnerability to the drying of Urmia Lake

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  • Rasoul Maleki
  • Mehdi Nooripoor
  • Zeinab Sharifi
  • Dacinia Crina Petrescu

Abstract

The drying of Urmia Lake, the largest inland lake in Iran, is one of the greatest ecological disasters in Iran, and it was repeatedly included on the agenda of national and international conventions. The aim of the current study was to apply the system dynamics methodology to analyse rural households' vulnerability to the Urmia Lake drying. The result of the first phase (strategy collection) indicated that five strategies were proposed by stakeholders: ‘To reduce the population of the region’, ‘To reduce the crop area and agricultural activities’, ‘To modify the cultivation pattern and growing crops with low water needs’, ‘To use new irrigation systems’ and ‘To create alternative agricultural livelihoods with less dependence on damaged resources’. The second phase used Vensim software and indicated that the best strategy to reduce households' vulnerability to the drying of Urmia Lake was ‘To create alternative agricultural livelihoods with less dependence on damaged resources’.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasoul Maleki & Mehdi Nooripoor & Zeinab Sharifi & Dacinia Crina Petrescu, 2023. "Application of community‐based system dynamics for the management of rural households' vulnerability to the drying of Urmia Lake," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 573-585, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:srbeha:v:40:y:2023:i:3:p:573-585
    DOI: 10.1002/sres.2848
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alireza Gohari & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, 2017. "System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1413-1434, March.
    2. Kopainsky, Birgit & Hager, Gerid & Herrera, Hugo & Nyanga, Progress H., 2017. "Transforming food systems at local levels: Using participatory system dynamics in an interactive manner to refine small-scale farmers’ mental models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 362(C), pages 101-110.
    3. Yusuf Alizade Govarchin Ghale & Abdusselam Altunkaynak & Alper Unal, 2018. "Investigation Anthropogenic Impacts and Climate Factors on Drying up of Urmia Lake using Water Budget and Drought Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 325-337, January.
    4. Seyed Ashkan Zarghami & Indra Gunawan & Frank Schultmann, 2018. "System Dynamics Modelling Process in Water Sector: a Review of Research Literature," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 776-790, November.
    5. Dumenu, William Kwadwo & Obeng, Elizabeth Asantewaa, 2016. "Climate change and rural communities in Ghana: Social vulnerability, impacts, adaptations and policy implications," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(P1), pages 208-217.
    6. Maleki, Tahereh & Koohestani, Hossein & Keshavarz, Marzieh, 2022. "Can climate-smart agriculture mitigate the Urmia Lake tragedy in its eastern basin?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    7. Federico Cosenz & Guido Noto, 2016. "Applying System Dynamics Modelling to Strategic Management: A Literature Review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(6), pages 703-741, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fanak, Davood Amin & Rezaei, Rohollah & Hashemi, Mukhtar, 2025. "How do cognitive biases influence farmers' participation in water conservation at Lake Urmia? Insights from social norms theory," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).

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