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Earnings Trend and Performance Relative to Benchmarks: How Consistency Influences Their Joint Use

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  • LISA KOONCE
  • MARLYS GASCHO LIPE

Abstract

Archival research shows that the market reacts to earnings trend as well as to earnings performance relative to analysts' forecasts (i.e., benchmark performance). We conduct four experiments to investigate how and why investors react to these two measures when both are available over multiple time periods. Our results show that investors rely on an earnings measure only when it is consistent over time. When both measures are consistent over time, investors use them in an additive fashion, suggesting that they view them as providing different information about the firm. Further tests show that investors believe that earnings trend and benchmark performance both provide information about a firm's future prospects and management's credibility. Although judged future prospects fully explain the effect of earnings trend on investor judgments, neither judged future prospects nor management credibility completely explains the effect of benchmark performance. Our study has implications for firm managers and researchers.

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  • Lisa Koonce & Marlys Gascho Lipe, 2010. "Earnings Trend and Performance Relative to Benchmarks: How Consistency Influences Their Joint Use," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 859-884, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:48:y:2010:i:4:p:859-884
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2010.00377.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Martin, Rachel, 2019. "Examination and implications of experimental research on investor perceptions," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 145-169.
    3. Nicole L. Cade & Lisa Koonce & Kim I. Mendoza, 2020. "Using video to disclose forward-looking information: the effect of nonverbal cues on investors’ judgments," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1444-1474, December.
    4. Chen, Zhenhua & Loftus, Serena, 2019. "Multi-method evidence on investors’ reactions to managers’ self-inclusive language," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Anna Agapova & Jagadison K. Aier & Zhanel DeVides, 2022. "Earnings patterns and managerial guidance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1173-1213, October.
    6. Cade, Nicole L., 2018. "Corporate social media: How two-way disclosure channels influence investors," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 68, pages 63-79.
    7. Lisa M. Gaynor & Andrea S. Kelton, 2014. "The effects of analyst forecasts and earnings trends on perceptions of management forecast credibility," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(1), pages 189-210, March.
    8. Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles & Segal, Benjamin & Wang, Rencheng, 2016. "The bright side of managerial over-optimism," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 46-64.
    9. Lim, Yingzhee & Azmi, Anna & Devi, S. Susela & Mahzan, Nurmazilah, 2017. "Implementation Guidance for Standards and Revenue Trend in Aggressive Reporting," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 342-353.
    10. Su-Ping Liu & Juan Manuel García Lara, 2013. "Market Rewards to Patterns of Increasing Earnings: Do Cash Flow Patterns, Accruals Manipulation and Real Activities Manipulation Matter?," Working Papers 1303, Departament Empresa, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, revised May 2013.
    11. Koon Boon Kee, 2011. "Why ‘Democracy’ anD ‘Drifter’ firms can have abnormal returns: the Joint importance of corporate Governance anD abnormal accruals in separatinG Winners from losers," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 3-55.
    12. Kristina Rennekamp, 2012. "Processing Fluency and Investors’ Reactions to Disclosure Readability," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1319-1354, December.
    13. Libby, Robert & Rennekamp, Kristina M. & Seybert, Nicholas, 2015. "Regulation and the interdependent roles of managers, auditors, and directors in earnings management and accounting choice," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 25-42.
    14. Chen, Wei & Han, Jun & Tan, Hun-Tong, 2016. "Investor reactions to management earnings guidance attributions: The effects of news valence, attribution locus, and outcome controllability," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 83-95.
    15. Asay, H. Scott & Libby, Robert & Rennekamp, Kristina M., 2018. "Do features that associate managers with a message magnify investors’ reactions to narrative disclosures?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 68, pages 1-14.

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