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Volume, Opinion Divergence, and Returns: A Study of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift

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  • JON A. GARFINKEL
  • JONATHAN SOKOBIN

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between post-earnings announcement returns and different measures of volume at the earnings date. We find that post-event returns are strictly increasing in the component of volume that is unexplained by prior trading activity. We interpret unexplained volume as an indicator of opinion divergence among investors and conclude that post-event returns are increasing in ex ante opinion divergence. Our evidence is consistent with Varian [1985], who suggests that opinion divergence may be treated as an additional risk factor affecting asset prices. Copyright University of Chicago on behalf of the Institute of Professional Accounting, 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon A. Garfinkel & Jonathan Sokobin, 2006. "Volume, Opinion Divergence, and Returns: A Study of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 85-112, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:44:y:2006:i:1:p:85-112
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    4. Hwang, Lee-Seok & Lee, Woo-Jong & Lim, Seung-Yeon & Park, Kyung-Ho, 2013. "Does information risk affect the implied cost of equity capital? An analysis of PIN and adjusted PIN," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 148-167.
    5. McSweeney, Brendan, 2009. "The roles of financial asset market failure denial and the economic crisis: Reflections on accounting and financial theories and practices," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(6-7), pages 835-848, August.
    6. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    7. Hasan, Iftekhar & Massoud, Nadia & Saunders, Anthony & Song, Keke, 2015. "Which financial stocks did short sellers target in the subprime crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    8. Han, Jianlei & Pan, Zheyao & Zhang, Guangli, 2017. "Divergence of opinion and long-run performance of private placements: evidence from the auction market," Working Papers 2017-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    9. Gharghori, Philip & See, Quin & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2011. "Difference of opinion and the cross-section of equity returns: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 435-446, September.
    10. Qi Zhang & Charlie Cai & Kevin Keasey, 2014. "The profitability, costs and systematic risk of the post-earnings-announcement-drift trading strategy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 605-625, October.
    11. Junming Hsu & Li-Hwei Tsai, 2008. "An Investigation on Information Transmission Between Stocks of Far Eastern Countries and Their American Depositary Receipts," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 40-61, July.
    12. Zhang, Yan & Ikeda, Shin S., 2016. "A dynamic panel analysis of HKEx shorting ban’s impact on the relationship between disagreement and future returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 10-16.
    13. Xuguang Sheng & Maya Thevenot, 2013. "Differential Interpretation of Public Information: Estimation and Inference," Working Papers 2013-03, American University, Department of Economics.
    14. Li, Leon & Chen, Carl R., 2016. "Analysts' forecast dispersion and stock returns: a panel threshold regression analysis based on conditional limited market participation hypothesis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 100-107.
    15. Pietro Perotti & Alfred Wagenhofer, 2014. "Earnings Quality Measures and Excess Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5-6), pages 545-571, June.
    16. Sheng, Xuguang (Simon) & Thevenot, Maya, 2015. "Quantifying differential interpretation of public information using financial analysts’ earnings forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 515-530.
    17. Junming Hsu & Li-Hwei Tsai, 2008. "An Investigation on Information Transmission Between Stocks of Far Eastern Countries and Their American Depositary Receipts," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 40-61, July.
    18. Chen, Lin & Qin, Lu & Zhu, Hongquan, 2015. "Opinion divergence, unexpected trading volume and stock returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 119-127.
    19. Shin S. Ikeda & Yan Zhang, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, a Short-Sale Restriction, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns: An Evidence from China," GRIPS Discussion Papers 12-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    20. Cai, Charlie X. & McGuinness, Paul B. & Zhang, Qi, 2011. "The pricing dynamics of cross-listed securities: The case of Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2123-2136, August.
    21. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    22. Dahm, Laura K. & Sorhage, Christoph, 2015. "Milk or wine: Mutual funds' (dis)economies of life," CFR Working Papers 15-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    23. Göricke, Marc-André, 2016. "Do generalists profit from the fund families' specialists? Evidence from mutual fund families offering sector funds," CFR Working Papers 16-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    24. Vijh, Anand M. & Yang, Ke, 2013. "Are small firms less vulnerable to overpriced stock offers?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 61-86.
    25. Jeffrey Hobbs & Hei Wai Lee & Vivek Singh, 2017. "New evidence on the effect of belief heterogeneity on stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, February.

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