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The Relation between Stock Market Movements and NYSE Seat Prices


  • Donald B. Keim

    (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania,)

  • Ananth Madhavan

    (Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California)


Exchange seat prices are widely reported and followed as measures of market sentiment. This paper analyzes the information content of NYSE seat prices using: (1) annual seat prices from 1869 to 1998, and (2) the complete record of trades, bids and offers for the seat market from 1973 to 1994. Seat market volumes have predictive power regarding future stock market returns, consistent with a model where seat market activity is a proxy for unobserved factors affecting expected returns. We find abnormally large price movements in seats prior to October 1987, consistent with the hypothesis that seat prices capture market sentiment. Copyright The American Finance Association 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, 2000. "The Relation between Stock Market Movements and NYSE Seat Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2817-2840, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:6:p:2817-2840

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
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    5. Richard W. Kopcke, 1993. "Forecasting investment with models and surveys of capital spending," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 47-69.
    6. Mark Schankerman, 1991. "Revisions of Investment Plans and the Stock Market Rate of Return," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 05, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 115-136.
    8. Dexter Keezer & Robert Ulin, 1960. "Observations on the Predictive Quality of Mcgraw-Hill Surveys of Business' Plans for New Plants and Equipment," NBER Chapters,in: The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data, pages 369-386 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Cochrane, John H, 1991. " Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    10. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Lance E. & Neal, Larry & White, Eugene, 2007. "The Highest Price Ever: The Great NYSE Seat Sale of 1928 1929 and Capacity Constraints," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(03), pages 705-739, September.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2017. "Is Market Fear Persistent? A Long-Memory Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1670, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Eugene N. White, 2006. "Anticipating the Stock Market Crash of 1929: The View from the Floor of the Stock Exchange," NBER Working Papers 12661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Moser, Petra, 2012. "Taste-based discrimination evidence from a shift in ethnic preferences after WWI," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 167-188.
    5. Li, Matthew C., 2016. "US term structure and international stock market volatility: The role of the expectations factor and the maturity premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Battalio, Robert & Hatch, Brian & Loughran, Tim, 2011. "Who benefited from the disclosure mandates of the 1964 Securities Acts Amendments?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 1047-1063, September.
    7. Choo, Lawrence, 2016. "Market competition for decision rights: An experiment based on the “Hat Puzzle Problem”," MPRA Paper 73408, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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