Do we have enough natural sand for low‐carbon infrastructure?

Global low‐carbon transition demands the development of large‐scale infrastructure, which is sand intensive. Natural sand is widely considered abundant, whereas recent research has pointed out the increasing risk of supply shortage in a number of world regions. In the current research, we examine the implication of future sand demand in the context of low‐carbon infrastructure development. We mapped the projected investments on buildings and low‐carbon infrastructure up to 2030 and estimated the sand intensity of the two types of construction. We translated these investments and sand intensity to country‐specific sand‐demand projections under three economic development scenarios. Our results indicate that China is expected to face the highest sand demand, followed by India, and that should the current sand extraction rates and construction practices be maintained, developing countries will be exposed to a significant supply risk of construction sand. Under the scenario of sustainable growth, developed economies are expected to have a relatively stable sand demand whereas South‐East Asia and Africa will see a rapid increase in their sand demand over the next 15 years. Our results call regional sand supply security into attention in low‐carbon transition planning.