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Social Security Benefit Uncertainty under Individual Accounts

Author

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  • Amy Rehder Harris
  • John Sabelhaus
  • Michael Simpson

Abstract

Social Security reforms that include individual accounts change both the expected benefit and the benefit risk. This article uses a long‐term stochastic forecasting model to estimate the distribution of expected benefits under a simple individual account, recognizing uncertainties in the current system. Introducing individual accounts increases the overall variability of benefit levels relative to current law; indeed the standard deviations of expected benefit gains exceed the level of those gains. The increase in uncertainty about benefit replacement rates is even larger, however, because individual accounts partially sever the link between earnings and benefits in the existing system. (JEL H55)

Suggested Citation

  • Amy Rehder Harris & John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson, 2005. "Social Security Benefit Uncertainty under Individual Accounts," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:23:y:2005:i:1:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1093/cep/byi001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris, Amy Rehder & Meyerson, Noah & Smith, Joel, 2001. "Social Insecurity? The Effects of Equity Investments on Social Security Finances," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 54(n. 3), pages 645-68, September.
    2. Harris, Amy Rehder & Meyerson, Noah & Smith, Joel, 2001. "Social Insecurity? The Effects of Equity Investments on Social Security Finances," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 54(3), pages 645-668, September.
    3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    4. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1116-1125, September.
    5. John Sabelhaus & Joel V. Smith, 2003. "Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals: Technical Paper 2003-08," Working Papers 14678, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Marie‐Eve Lachance & Olivia S. Mitchell & Kent Smetters, 2003. "Guaranteeing Defined Contribution Pensions: The Option to Buy Back a Defined Benefit Promise," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 1-16, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wade D. Pfau & Vararat Atisophon, 2009. "Impact of the National Pension Fund on the Suitability of Elderly Pensions in Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 41-63, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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