IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbo/wpaper/14678.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals: Technical Paper 2003-08

Author

Listed:
  • John Sabelhaus
  • Joel V. Smith

Abstract

The effect upon future Social Security benefits resulting from the introduction of individual accounts depends on both the potential risks and returns of private equities, yet the historical evidence about determinants of stock market risks and returns is mixed. In particular, correlations between equity returns and market fundamentals (such as the dividend price ratio) are weak at annual frequencies, which has led some to conclude that a random returns (fixed mean and variance) model is the preferred specification for simulating the future path of equity returns. Although

Suggested Citation

  • John Sabelhaus & Joel V. Smith, 2003. "Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals: Technical Paper 2003-08," Working Papers 14678, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:14678
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/108th-congress-2003-2004/workingpaper/2003-8_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 153-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thomas E. MaCurdy & John B. Shoven, 2001. "Asset Allocation and Risk Allocation: Can Social Security Improve Its Future Solvency Problem by Investing in Private Securities?," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 11-40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1116-1125, September.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    7. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    8. Peter A. Diamond, 1999. "What Stock Market Returns To Expect For The Future?," Issues in Brief ib-2, Center for Retirement Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diana H. A. Tsai, 2005. "Knowledge Spillovers and High‐technology Clustering: Evidence from Taiwan's Hsinchu Science‐Based Industrial Park," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(1), pages 116-128, January.
    2. Josh O’Harra & John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson, 2004. "Overview of the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) Policy Simulation Model: Technical Paper 2004-01," Working Papers 15188, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Amy Rehder Harris & John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson, 2005. "Social Security Benefit Uncertainty under Individual Accounts," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, January.
    4. John Sabelhaus, 2005. "Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 43-63, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Sabelhaus, 2005. "Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 43-63, March.
    2. Stephen Bell & John Quiggin, 2006. "Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalization," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 629-649, September.
    3. Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2019. "A Rational Finance Explanation of the Stock Predictability Puzzle," Papers 1911.02194, arXiv.org.
    4. Alejandro García-Figal & Alejandro Lage-Castellanos & Daniel A. Amaro & R. Mulet, 2025. "On the Efficiency of the Informal Currency Markets: The Case of the Cuban Peso," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(4), pages 2317-2350, April.
    5. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Molinari, Massimo, 2017. "Taxing financial transactions in fundamentally heterogeneous markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 322-333.
    6. Nadia Ameli & Paul Drummond & Alexander Bisaro & Michael Grubb & Hugues Chenet, 2020. "Climate finance and disclosure for institutional investors: why transparency is not enough," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 565-589, June.
    7. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Yousaf, Imran & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Li, Yanshuang, 2024. "Economic sanctions sentiment and global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H. & Pham, Toan M. & Walter, Terry S., 2011. "The information content of cash dividend announcements in a unique environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 606-612, March.
    9. Torsten Trimborn, 2018. "A Macroscopic Portfolio Model: From Rational Agents to Bounded Rationality," Papers 1805.11036, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    10. Kin-Boon Tang & Shao-Jye Wong & Shih-Kuei Lin & Szu-Lang Liao, 2020. "Excess volatility and market efficiency in government bond markets: the ASEAN-5 context," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 154-165, March.
    11. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2018. "Herding behavior in Ramadan and financial crises: the case of the Pakistani stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Julijana Angelovska, 2018. "Testing Weak Form Of Stock Market Efficiency At The Macedonian Stock Exchange," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 9(2), pages 133-144.
    13. Roland Rothenstein, 2018. "Quantification of market efficiency based on informational-entropy," Papers 1812.02371, arXiv.org.
    14. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    15. Mynhardt, H. R. & Plastun, Alex & Makarenko, Inna, 2014. "Behavior of Financial Markets Efficiency During the Financial Market Crisis: 2007-2009," MPRA Paper 58942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Andrea Antico & Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2022. "On the evolutionary stability of the sentiment investor," LEM Papers Series 2022/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    17. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2010. "Introducing Anthropological Foundations of Economic Behavior, Organization, and Control," MPRA Paper 22921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Rayenda Brahmana & Chee-Wooi Hooy & Zamri Ahmad, 2012. "Weather, investor irrationality and day-of-the-week anomaly: case of Indonesia," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 129-146, July.
    19. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Michał Markun & Anna Mospan, 2015. "Stationarity and persistence of the term premia in the Polish money market," NBP Working Papers 227, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    21. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Changing efficiency of BRICS currency markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1673-1699, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:14678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbogvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.