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Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals: Technical Paper 2003-08

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  • John Sabelhaus
  • Joel V. Smith

Abstract

The effect upon future Social Security benefits resulting from the introduction of individual accounts depends on both the potential risks and returns of private equities, yet the historical evidence about determinants of stock market risks and returns is mixed. In particular, correlations between equity returns and market fundamentals (such as the dividend price ratio) are weak at annual frequencies, which has led some to conclude that a random returns (fixed mean and variance) model is the preferred specification for simulating the future path of equity returns. Although

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  • John Sabelhaus & Joel V. Smith, 2003. "Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals: Technical Paper 2003-08," Working Papers 14678, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:14678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 153-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2001. "Individual Risk in an Investment-Based Social Security System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1116-1125, September.
    3. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    4. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter.
    6. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    7. Thomas E. MaCurdy & John B. Shoven, 2001. "Asset Allocation and Risk Allocation: Can Social Security Improve Its Future Solvency Problem by Investing in Private Securities?," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 11-40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Peter A. Diamond, 1999. "What Stock Market Returns To Expect For The Future?," Issues in Brief ib-2, Center for Retirement Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Sabelhaus, 2005. "Alternative Methods for Projecting Equity Returns: Implications for Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 43-63, March.
    2. Diana H. A. Tsai, 2005. "Knowledge Spillovers and High‐technology Clustering: Evidence from Taiwan's Hsinchu Science‐Based Industrial Park," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(1), pages 116-128, January.
    3. Josh O’Harra & John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson, 2004. "Overview of the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) Policy Simulation Model: Technical Paper 2004-01," Working Papers 15188, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Amy Rehder Harris & John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson, 2005. "Social Security Benefit Uncertainty under Individual Accounts," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, January.

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