IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecr/v56y2023i3p357-362.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Housing Fever in Australia 2020–23: Insights from an Econometric Thermometer

Author

Listed:
  • Shuping Shi
  • Peter C. B. Phillips

Abstract

Australian housing markets experienced widespread and, in some cases, extraordinary growth in prices between 2020 and 2023. Using recently developed methodology that accounts for fundamental economic drivers, we assess the existence and degree of speculative behaviour, as well as the timing of exuberance and downturns in these markets. Our findings indicate that speculative behaviour was indeed present in six of the eight capital cities at some time over the period studied. The sequence of events in this nation‐wide housing bubble began in the Brisbane market and concluded in Melbourne, Canberra, and Hobart following the interest rate rise implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May 2022. As of March 2023, the housing markets in Sydney, Canberra and Hobart had broadly regained stability, while Melbourne's return to its normal state is more gradual. In addition, over‐corrections against fundamentals are evident in the housing markets of Brisbane, Adelaide, Darwin and Perth. For regular updates on the housing markets, readers may visit the authors' website at https://www.housing-fever.com.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2023. "Housing Fever in Australia 2020–23: Insights from an Econometric Thermometer," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 357-362, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:56:y:2023:i:3:p:357-362
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12523
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12523
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8462.12523?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shuping Shi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2023. "Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 159-186, February.
    2. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
    3. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 2015. "Asset bubbles and bailouts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 71-89.
    4. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 2015. "Asset bubbles and bailouts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 71-89.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of Asset Price Bubbles," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2331, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2023. "Housing Fever in Australia 2020-2023: Insights from an Econometric Thermometer," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2381, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Hirano, Tomohiro & Inaba, Masaru & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 2015. "Asset bubbles and bailouts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 71-89.
    4. Enders, Zeno & Hakenes, Hendrik Hakenes, 2014. "On the Existence and Prevention of Speculative Bubbles," Working Papers 0567, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    5. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Chenxi Wang, 2023. "Asset bubbles and frictional intermediation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(3), pages 921-961, October.
    7. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 505-539, August.
    8. Shuping Shi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2023. "Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 159-186, February.
    9. Siddhartha Biswas & Andrew Hanson & Toan Phan, 2020. "Bubbly Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 33-70, October.
    10. Atsushi Motohashi, 2020. "Bubbles, the U.S. Interest Policy, and the Impact on Global Economic Growth: Reverse Growth Effects of Lower Interest Rates after Bubble Bursting," KIER Working Papers 1041, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Ryosuke Shimizu, 2018. "Bubbles, growth and imperfection of credit market in a two-country model," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 353-377, August.
    12. Pengfei Wang & Jing Zhou & Jianjun Miao, 2015. "Housing Bubbles and Policy Analysis," 2015 Meeting Papers 1056, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Takuma Kunieda & Tarishi Matsuoka & Akihisa Shibata, 2017. "Asset Bubbles, Technology Choice, and Financial Crises," Discussion Paper Series 157, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Feb 2017.
    14. Atsushi Motohashi, 2020. "Effectiveness of Bailout Policies for Asset Bubbles in a Small Open Economy," KIER Working Papers 1048, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    15. Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2016. "Asset bubbles, economic growth, and a self-fulfilling financial crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 70-84.
    16. Graczyk, Andrew & Phan, Toan, 2021. "Regressive Welfare Effects Of Housing Bubbles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(8), pages 2102-2127, December.
    17. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei & Zhou, Jing, 2015. "Asset bubbles, collateral, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 57-70.
    18. Ken‐ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im & Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2022. "Asset bubbles, unemployment, and financial market frictions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1806-1832, October.
    19. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Bengui, Julien & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Asset pledgeability and endogenously leveraged bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 280-314.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:56:y:2023:i:3:p:357-362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mimelau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.