IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v65y2025i5p4370-4390.html

An Instrumented Principal Component Analysis Factor Model for Chinese Equity Options Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Yanchu Liu
  • Heyang Zhou
  • Xiaoqiong Li
  • Jianfeng Liang
  • Haisheng Yang

Abstract

The equity options market plays a vital role in advancing China's capital market by enriching investor tools and enhancing risk management. However, traditional factor models struggle to capture the complex features of options, such as short maturities and changing moneyness. This paper applies the Instrumented Principal Component Analysis (IPCA) to model option returns using detailed contract, trading, and sensitivity data from SSE 50 ETF options. Empirical results show that a 4‐factor IPCA model explains nearly 85% of the monthly variation in delta‐hedged returns from 2015 to 2023; outperforming traditional factor models and standard PCA. These findings highlight IPCA's effectiveness in identifying systematic risk in China's unique market environment and its potential to enhance portfolio efficiency and risk understanding.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanchu Liu & Heyang Zhou & Xiaoqiong Li & Jianfeng Liang & Haisheng Yang, 2025. "An Instrumented Principal Component Analysis Factor Model for Chinese Equity Options Returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 65(5), pages 4370-4390, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:65:y:2025:i:5:p:4370-4390
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.70082
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.70082
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.70082?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ge, Li & Lin, Tse-Chun & Pearson, Neil D., 2016. "Why does the option to stock volume ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 601-622.
    2. Vasquez, Aurelio, 2017. "Equity Volatility Term Structures and the Cross Section of Option Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2727-2754, December.
    3. Johnson, Travis L. & So, Eric C., 2012. "The option to stock volume ratio and future returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 262-286.
    4. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Jinzhong Wang & Hao Kang & Fei Xia & Guowei Li, 2018. "Examining the Equilibrium Relationship Between the Shanghai 50 Stock Index Futures and the Shanghai 50 ETF Options Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 2557-2576, September.
    6. Da Dong & Qingfu Liu & Pingping Tao & Zhiliang Ying, 2021. "The pricing mechanism between ETF option and spot markets in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1286-1300, August.
    7. Serhiy Kozak & Stefan Nagel & Shrihari Santosh, 2018. "Interpreting Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1183-1223, June.
    8. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing, 2013. "Cross section of option returns and idiosyncratic stock volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 231-249.
    9. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    10. Zhou, Yi, 2022. "Option trading volume by moneyness, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Li, Zhiyong & Wang, Haixu & Yu, Mei, 2023. "Beyond rocket science: A factor model for convertible bond returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    12. Bryan Kelly & Diogo Palhares & Seth Pruitt, 2023. "Modeling Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(4), pages 1967-2008, August.
    13. Büchner, Matthias & Kelly, Bryan, 2022. "A factor model for option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1140-1161.
    14. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
    15. Kelly, Bryan T. & Pruitt, Seth & Su, Yinan, 2019. "Characteristics are covariances: A unified model of risk and return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 501-524.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amit Goyal & Alessio Saretto, 2022. "Are Equity Option Returns Abnormal? IPCA Says No," Working Papers 2214, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Liu, Yanchu & Zhou, Heyang & Yang, Haisheng, 2025. "Latent factor models for the Chinese commodity futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Yuan, Jianglei & Liu, Dehong & Chen, Carl R. & Hu, Sen, 2024. "Option trading volume and the cross-section of option returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Matteo Bagnara, 2024. "Asset Pricing and Machine Learning: A critical review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 27-56, February.
    5. Yuhan Cheng & Heyang Zhou & Yanchu Liu, 2025. "Large Language Models and Futures Price Factors in China," Papers 2509.23609, arXiv.org.
    6. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "A diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 503-521.
    7. Gu, Shihao & Kelly, Bryan & Xiu, Dacheng, 2021. "Autoencoder asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 429-450.
    8. Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.
    9. Ma, Tian & Leong, Wen Jun & Jiang, Fuwei, 2023. "A latent factor model for the Chinese stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Ma, Jiantao & Zhang, Yuanyi, 2025. "Option price asymmetry, speculation and stock short-sale cost," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. Constant Aka & Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Gabriel J. Power, 2025. "Commodity Option Return Predictability," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(10), pages 1544-1578, October.
    12. Jozef Barunik & Matej Nevrla, 2022. "Common Idiosyncratic Quantile Factors and Asset Prices," Papers 2208.14267, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    13. Brian Du, 2019. "Relative option liquidity and price efficiency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1119-1135, May.
    14. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    15. Keming Li, 2021. "The effect of option trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, December.
    16. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    17. Yi‐Wei Chuang & Wei‐Che Tsai & Ming‐Hung Wu, 2020. "The impact of net buying pressure on VIX option prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 209-227, February.
    18. Lin, Zih-Ying & Chang, Chuang-Chang & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2018. "The impacts of asymmetric information and short sales on the illiquidity risk premium in the stock option market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 152-165.
    19. Doojin Ryu & Doowon Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2021. "The impact of net buying pressure on index options prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 27-45, January.
    20. Yangyang Chen & Jeffrey Ng & Xin Yang, 2021. "Talk Less, Learn More: Strategic Disclosure in Response to Managerial Learning from the Options Market," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 59(5), pages 1609-1649, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:65:y:2025:i:5:p:4370-4390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.