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Modeling Corporate Bond Returns

Author

Listed:
  • BRYAN KELLY
  • DIOGO PALHARES
  • SETH PRUITT

Abstract

We propose a conditional factor model for corporate bond returns with five factors and time‐varying factor loadings. We have three main empirical findings. First, our factor model excels in describing the risks and returns of corporate bonds, improving over previously proposed models in the literature by a large margin. Second, our model recommends a systematic bond investment portfolio whose high out‐of‐sample Sharpe ratio suggests that the credit risk premium is notably larger than previously estimated. Third, we find closer integration between debt and equity markets than found in prior literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Kelly & Diogo Palhares & Seth Pruitt, 2023. "Modeling Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(4), pages 1967-2008, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:78:y:2023:i:4:p:1967-2008
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13233
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    Cited by:

    1. Yanchu Liu & Heyang Zhou & Xiaoqiong Li & Jianfeng Liang & Haisheng Yang, 2025. "An Instrumented Principal Component Analysis Factor Model for Chinese Equity Options Returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 65(5), pages 4370-4390, December.
    2. Alexander Dickerson & Cesare Robotti & Giulio Rossetti, 2026. "The Corporate Bond Factor Replication Crisis," Papers 2604.07880, arXiv.org.
    3. Redouane Elkamhi & Chanik Jo & Yoshio Nozawa, 2024. "A One-Factor Model of Corporate Bond Premia," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(3), pages 1875-1900, March.
    4. Liu, Yanchu & Zhou, Heyang & Yang, Haisheng, 2025. "Latent factor models for the Chinese commodity futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. DICKERSON, Alexander & NOZAWA, Yoshio & ROBOTTI, Cesare, 2025. "Factor Investing with Delays," Discussion Paper Series 771, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Liu, Yuekun & Riley, Timothy B., 2025. "How should we measure the performance of corporate bond mutual funds? Evaluating model quality and impact on inferences," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Qianwen Chen & Jaewon Choi, 2024. "Reaching for Yield and the Cross Section of Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(8), pages 5226-5245, August.
    8. Liu, Zhen & Guo, Qiang & Yang, Shuangpeng, 2025. "Environmental Information Disclosure and Corporate Bond Spread," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PF).
    9. Travis Cable & Amir Mani & Wei Qi & Georgios Sotiropoulos & Yiyuan Xiong, 2025. "On the Efficacy of Shorting Corporate Bonds as a Tail Risk Hedging Solution," Papers 2504.06289, arXiv.org.
    10. Desislava Vladimirova, 2024. "In the shadow of country risk: asset pricing model of emerging market corporate bonds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(5), pages 479-492, September.
    11. Kuong, John Chi-Fong & O’Donovan, James & Zhang, Jinyuan, 2024. "Monetary policy and fragility in corporate bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. Junyi Ye & Bhaskar Goswami & Jingyi Gu & Ajim Uddin & Guiling Wang, 2024. "From Factor Models to Deep Learning: Machine Learning in Reshaping Empirical Asset Pricing," Papers 2403.06779, arXiv.org.
    13. Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs & Piotr Orłowski, 2024. "Modeling Conditional Factor Risk Premia Implied by Index Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2289-2338, June.

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