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Econometric Estimation of the Price Gap Between Primary and Secondary Housing Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ianina Roshchina

    (Lomonosov Moscow State University)

  • Anna Litvinova

    (Yandex.Technologies LLC)

Abstract

This paper examines the estimation of the price gap between primary and secondary housing markets in Russia. We develop a two-stage matching methodology that allows matching pairs of apartments with most similar characteristics, thereby reducing the impact of infrastructural and design differences. Using 24.5 million apartment sale listings from 2022-2025, we estimate regional price gaps. The results reveal substantial interregional heterogeneity in the price gap: in many regions, newly built housing is more expensive, although there are cases of zero or negative gaps. The proposed approach enables dynamic monitoring of price differences and identifying the influence of regional factors, which is of practical importance for both home buyers and regulators when developing mortgage support programmes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ianina Roshchina & Anna Litvinova, 2026. "Econometric Estimation of the Price Gap Between Primary and Secondary Housing Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 85(1), pages 95-110, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:85:y:2026:i:1:p:95-110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design

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